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Netherlands vs Greece prediction
International · UEFA Nations League
Netherlands
GreeceProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Friday, November 13 · 14:45 (Peru time)
Netherlands or draw
83%- Netherlands unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 (W D W D W)
- At home, Netherlands are 3W 2D 1L this season
- Head to head: 2W 1D 0L for Netherlands
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Netherlands and Greece meet in the UEFA Nations League.
The PickMania model gives Netherlands a 61% chance of winning, 22% for the draw and 17% for Greece.
3.1 total goals are expected (2.1 from Netherlands and 1.0 from Greece): over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance and both teams to score 56%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Netherlands 2.06 · Greece 1.01
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.07.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.2 in total · Netherlands 5.1 · Greece 4.1
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.0
⏱️ First half
44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.35
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Netherlands: 8 matches · Greece: 8 matches (all competitions with data).
Netherlands at home · Greece away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 4 of 8 matches and wins 3 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 3.
Scores first in 3 of 6 matches and wins 1 of them.
Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
C. Gakpo · 3 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
M. Meerdink · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Tijjani Reijnders · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
F. Ioannidis · 1 gol, 1 assists in 3 matches
G. Masouras · 1 gol, 1 assists in 3 matches
Dimitris Kourbelis · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches
Head to head
3 matches · 2.7 goals per match
| 2026-10-01 | Greece 2-2 Netherlands | UEFA Nations League |
| 2023-10-16 | Greece 0-1 Netherlands | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| 2023-09-07 | Netherlands 3-0 Greece | Euro Championship - Qualification |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | -5 | 0 |
More stats
Netherlands: 40 days since last match · Greece: 40 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.