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OH Leuven vs KV Mechelen prediction

Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

OH Leuven#10 · 12 ptsWDDWD

2 - 0Full time

KV Mechelen#11 · 12 ptsWWWDL

44%31%25%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ E. Addai 50'⚽ W. Balikwisha 90'

Saturday, November 7 · 12:15 (Peru time) · The King Power AT Den Dreef Stadium · Referee: Lawrence Visser

🎯 Model pick

OH Leuven to score

80%

Full data

OH Leuven scored in 7 of 10 matches this season
KV Mechelen concede 1.8 goals per match
KV Mechelen kept a clean sheet in only 2 of 10

⚡ Summary

44%OH Leuven to win@2.26 51%Over 2.5 goals@1.95 58%Both teams to score@1.72 60%Corners +9.5 (10.9)@1.6641%Cards +4.5 (4.2)@2.441-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+4⚽ W. BalikwishaOH Leuven

90'+3🔁 Sub: R. Nyakossi · N. DussenneOH Leuven

88'🔁 Sub: F. Hammar · K. VanrafelghemKV Mechelen

86'🟨 R. MirisolaOH Leuven

80'🟨 S. SchrijversOH Leuven

76'🟨 M. van BrederodeKV Mechelen

73'🔁 Sub: M. Lohunanu-Mbasi · H. OzdemirKV Mechelen

73'🔁 Sub: J. Marsa · B. AntonioKV Mechelen

72'🔁 Sub: E. Addai · K. VaesenOH Leuven

72'🔁 Sub: O. Gil · T. VlietinckOH Leuven

62'🟨 J. LawrenceOH Leuven

53'🟨 F. HammarKV Mechelen

50'⚽ E. Addai assist R. MirisolaOH Leuven

46'🔁 Sub: B. Raman · C. Van MeirvenneKV Mechelen

32'🔁 Sub: M. Decherf · D. PraetKV Mechelen

Win probability minute by minute

OH LeuvenDrawKV Mechelen

At kick-off44%31%25%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

44%OH Leuven to win@2.26

31%Draw@3.24

25%KV Mechelen to win@4.03

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score58%

OH Leuven or draw75%

KV Mechelen or draw56%

OH Leuven to score80%

KV Mechelen to score69%

Most likely scores

1-114%0-09%1-09%2-19%2-07%

Expected goals per the model: OH Leuven 1.61 · KV Mechelen 1.18

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.79.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.9 in total · OH Leuven 4.3 · KV Mechelen 6.5

70%Over 8.5@1.43

60%Over 9.5@1.66

50%Over 10.5@1.99

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.2 · el árbitro L. Visser saca 4.5 por partido

58%Over 3.5@1.73

41%Over 4.5@2.44

27%Over 5.5@3.72

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.18

69%Goal in the 1st half@1.44

33%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.03

80%Goal in the 2st half@1.25

⚽ Goals per team

48%OH Leuven +1.5@2.09

33%KV Mechelen +1.5@3.03

22%OH Leuven to win to nil@4.48

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

5Shots on target2

16Shots17

20Fouls9

6Corners16

0Offsides2

43Possession %57

3Yellow cards2

2Saves4

1.13Expected goals (xG)0.73

Goals in the last 10 matches

OH Leuven · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

KV Mechelen · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score3.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

OH LeuvenKV Mechelen

1.0Goals scored per match1.3

1.7Goals conceded per match1.8

90%Matches with over 1.5 goals70%

60%Matches with over 2.5 goals50%

60%Both teams to score40%

10%Clean sheet20%

30%Matches without scoring50%

4.3Corners won per match4.4

2.2Yellow cards per match1.7

OH Leuven: 10 matches · KV Mechelen: 10 matches (all competitions with data).

OH Leuven at home · KV Mechelen away

OH Leuven at home

1G2E2P

DWDLL

KV Mechelen away

1G2E2P

WDDLL

When do they score and concede?

OH Leuven · goals by minute in 10 matches scored conceded

KV Mechelen · goals by minute in 10 matches scored conceded

The first goal

OH Leuven

Scores first in 3 of 10 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 2.

KV Mechelen

Scores first in 3 of 9 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

OH Leuven

D. Opoku · 3 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

W. George · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

R. Mirisola · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

KV Mechelen

S. Michez · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

M. van Brederode · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Benito Raman · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3OH Leuven to win

3Draws

4KV Mechelen to win

10 matches · 2.9 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-02-01	OH Leuven 2-2 KV Mechelen	Jupiler Pro League
2025-10-25	KV Mechelen 1-1 OH Leuven	Jupiler Pro League
2025-05-03	OH Leuven 1-2 KV Mechelen	Jupiler Pro League
2025-04-13	KV Mechelen 1-1 OH Leuven	Jupiler Pro League
2025-01-31	OH Leuven 1-0 KV Mechelen	Jupiler Pro League
2024-10-05	KV Mechelen 5-0 OH Leuven	Jupiler Pro League

Standings

Jupiler Pro League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Unión St. Gilloise	11	+23	29
2	Club Brugge KV	11	+18	28
3	Gent	11	+14	28
4	Charleroi	11	+13	27
5	Anderlecht	11	+2	20
6	Lommel United	11	+2	16
7	Genk	11	+3	15
8	Standard Liege	11	+2	15
9	KVC Westerlo	11	-4	14
10	OH Leuven	11	-5	12
11	KV Mechelen	11	-7	12
12	St. Truiden	11	0	11
13	Antwerp	11	-6	11
14	Zulte Waregem	11	-7	11
15	SK Beveren	11	-10	10
16	Cercle Brugge	11	-8	9
17	RAAL La Louvière	11	-11	7
18	Kortrijk	11	-19	4

More stats

Referee: L. Visser

28 matches · 4.3 yellows and 0.20 reds per match · 0.47 penalties

Half-time

OH Leuven: 6 days since last match · KV Mechelen: 2 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 19:50 UTC.