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NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split prediction

Croatia · HNL

NK Osijek#3 · 20 ptsWLDLD

0 - 1Full time

HNK Hajduk Split#1 · 29 ptsLWDWW

20%29%51%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Carlos Martín Domínguez 89'

Sunday, November 8 · 09:00 (Peru time) · Opus Arena · Referee: Ante Culina

🎯 Model pick

HNK Hajduk Split to score

83%

Full data

HNK Hajduk Split scored in 20 of 23 matches this season
HNK Hajduk Split average 2.1 goals per match
NK Osijek concede 1.4 goals per match

⚡ Summary

51%HNK Hajduk Split to win@1.95 53%Over 2.5 goals@1.89 57%Both teams to score@1.74 43%Corners +9.5 (9.2)@2.3543%Cards +4.5 (4.3)@2.351-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+4🔁 Sub: Khalil Fayad · Alec Van HoorenbeeckHNK Hajduk Split

90'🟨 Carlos Martín DomínguezHNK Hajduk Split

90'🔁 Sub: Armando León · Ivan BarićNK Osijek

90'🔁 Sub: Luka Tunjic · Miguel Ângelo Bastos MeloNK Osijek

89'⚽ Carlos Martín Domínguez assist Khalil FayadHNK Hajduk Split

84'🔁 Sub: Jay Kruiver · Luka PosavecNK Osijek

77'🟨 Jay KruiverNK Osijek

74'🔁 Sub: Leander Dendoncker · Dalisson De Almeida LeiteHNK Hajduk Split

74'🔁 Sub: Michele Šego · Carlos Martín DomínguezHNK Hajduk Split

62'🔁 Sub: Adam Huram · Marin ŠotičekHNK Hajduk Split

62'🔁 Sub: Andelo Šutalo · Abdoulie SanyangHNK Hajduk Split

61'🔁 Sub: Niko Farkas · Ivan DolčekNK Osijek

61'🔁 Sub: Alejandro Cantero · Admir LjatifiNK Osijek

54'🟨 Khalil FayadHNK Hajduk Split

27'🟨 Oleksandr PetrusenkoNK Osijek

19'🟨 Luka JelenicNK Osijek

17'📺 Luka JelenicNK Osijek

12'🟨 Armando LeónNK Osijek

Win probability minute by minute

NK OsijekDrawHNK Hajduk Split

At kick-off20%29%51%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

20%NK Osijek to win@5.05

29%Draw@3.44

51%HNK Hajduk Split to win@1.95

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

NK Osijek or draw49%

HNK Hajduk Split or draw80%

NK Osijek to score66%

HNK Hajduk Split to score83%

Most likely scores

1-113%0-19%1-29%0-29%0-08%

Expected goals per the model: NK Osijek 1.07 · HNK Hajduk Split 1.79

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.86.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.2 in total · NK Osijek 4.3 · HNK Hajduk Split 4.9

53%Over 8.5@1.88

43%Over 9.5@2.35

33%Over 10.5@3.02

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.3

59%Over 3.5@1.69

43%Over 4.5@2.35

28%Over 5.5@3.54

⏱️ First half

44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.26

72%Goal in the 1st half@1.39

36%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.78

80%Goal in the 2st half@1.25

⚽ Goals per team

29%NK Osijek +1.5@3.45

53%HNK Hajduk Split +1.5@1.87

9%NK Osijek to win to nil@10.87

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.63Expected goals (xG)1.14

3Shots on target4

3Saves3

1Offsides2

10Shots11

4Yellow cards2

3Corners8

0Red cards0

19Fouls15

46Possession %54

Goals in the last 10 matches

NK Osijek · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score3.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

HNK Hajduk Split · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals3/10both teams to score2.3goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

NK OsijekHNK Hajduk Split

1.8Goals scored per match2.1

1.4Goals conceded per match1.0

75%Matches with over 1.5 goals83%

58%Matches with over 2.5 goals65%

50%Both teams to score43%

33%Clean sheet43%

25%Matches without scoring13%

5.3Corners won per match4.9

2.1Yellow cards per match2.1

NK Osijek: 12 matches · HNK Hajduk Split: 23 matches (all competitions with data).

NK Osijek at home · HNK Hajduk Split away

NK Osijek at home

3G1E2P

LDLWW

HNK Hajduk Split away

5G1E5P

LDWLW

When do they score and concede?

NK Osijek · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

HNK Hajduk Split · goals by minute in 23 matches scored conceded

The first goal

NK Osijek

Scores first in 8 of 11 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 1.

HNK Hajduk Split

Scores first in 18 of 23 matches and wins 14 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

NK Osijek

Niko Farkas · 1 gol, 1 assists in 3 matches

Miguel Ângelo Bastos Melo · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches

S. Mikolcic · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

HNK Hajduk Split

Carlos Martín Domínguez · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

Adam Huram · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Khalil Fayad · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

3NK Osijek to win

1Draws

6HNK Hajduk Split to win

10 matches · 2.5 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-08-23	HNK Hajduk Split 4-0 NK Osijek	HNL
2026-04-21	HNK Hajduk Split 0-1 NK Osijek	HNL
2026-02-15	NK Osijek 0-2 HNK Hajduk Split	HNL
2025-11-08	HNK Hajduk Split 2-0 NK Osijek	HNL
2025-08-24	NK Osijek 0-2 HNK Hajduk Split	HNL
2025-04-27	NK Osijek 2-0 HNK Hajduk Split	HNL

Standings

HNL standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	HNK Hajduk Split	13	+16	29
2	Dinamo Zagreb	12	+13	25
3	NK Osijek	13	+4	20
4	Istra 1961	13	+5	19
5	NK Varazdin	13	+3	19
6	HNK Rijeka	12	+1	18
7	NK Slaven Belupo	13	-9	16
8	Rudes	13	-11	16
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	-7	11
10	HNK Gorica	13	-15	7

More stats

Referee: Ante Culina

2 matches · 4.0 yellows and 1.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

NK Osijek: 6 days since last match · HNK Hajduk Split: 2 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 16:30 UTC.