Home › Mexico · Liga MX › Necaxa vs Club Tijuana

Necaxa vs Club Tijuana prediction

Mexico · Liga MX

Necaxa#17 · 13 ptsLDLLD

1 - 0Full time

Club Tijuana#9 · 22 ptsDDWDD

29%32%39%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Danny Leyva 12'

Friday, November 6 · 20:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Victoria · Referee: Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez

🎯 Model pick

Club Tijuana to score

77%

Full data

Club Tijuana scored in 12 of 15 matches this season
Club Tijuana average 1.7 goals per match
Necaxa concede 1.9 goals per match

⚡ Summary

39%Club Tijuana to win@2.57 51%Over 2.5 goals@1.96 59%Both teams to score@1.71 66%Corners +9.5 (11.5)@1.5223%Cards +4.5 (3.2)@4.291-1Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🟨 Ivan TonaClub Tijuana

90'+1🔁 Sub: Diego Ochoa · Pedro PedrazaNecaxa

78'🔁 Sub: Francisco González · Diego AbreuClub Tijuana

78'🔁 Sub: José Rivero · Ramiro ÁrcigaClub Tijuana

77'🔁 Sub: Raúl Martínez · Leroy DavisNecaxa

77'🔁 Sub: Owen González · Alexis PeñaNecaxa

70'🔁 Sub: Gilberto Mora · Yael PadillaClub Tijuana

65'🔁 Sub: Lorenzo Faravelli · Joshua Alejandro Palacios PulidoNecaxa

53'🟨 Raúl MartínezNecaxa

45'🔁 Sub: Julián Carranza · Juan ValenciaNecaxa

45'🔁 Sub: Mourad El Ghezouani · Elias ManoelClub Tijuana

45'🔁 Sub: Pablo Ortíz · Unai BilbaoClub Tijuana

34'🟨 Rafael FernándezClub Tijuana

12'⚽ Danny Leyva assist Lorenzo FaravelliNecaxa

Win probability minute by minute

NecaxaDrawClub Tijuana

At kick-off29%32%39%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

29%Necaxa to win@3.40

32%Draw@3.15

39%Club Tijuana to win@2.57

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score59%

Necaxa or draw61%

Club Tijuana or draw71%

Necaxa to score72%

Club Tijuana to score77%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-09%1-28%0-18%2-17%

Expected goals per the model: Necaxa 1.28 · Club Tijuana 1.49

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.77.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 11.5 in total · Necaxa 6.5 · Club Tijuana 5.0

75%Over 8.5@1.34

66%Over 9.5@1.52

56%Over 10.5@1.78

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.2 · referee Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez shows 2.0 per match

38%Over 3.5@2.60

23%Over 4.5@4.29

13%Over 5.5@7.64

⏱️ First half

44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.23

71%Goal in the 1st half@1.41

35%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.88

79%Goal in the 2st half@1.27

⚽ Goals per team

37%Necaxa +1.5@2.73

44%Club Tijuana +1.5@2.28

14%Necaxa to win to nil@7.10

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.33Expected goals (xG)1.59

5Shots on target3

3Saves4

1Offsides2

17Shots18

1Yellow cards2

5Corners6

7Fouls7

0Red cards0

42Possession %58

Goals in the last 10 matches

Necaxa · last 10 matches

3/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Club Tijuana · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

NecaxaClub Tijuana

1.1Goals scored per match1.7

1.9Goals conceded per match1.4

80%Matches with over 1.5 goals73%

53%Matches with over 2.5 goals53%

73%Both teams to score67%

0%Clean sheet27%

27%Matches without scoring20%

5.7Corners won per match4.3

2.3Yellow cards per match1.8

Necaxa: 15 matches · Club Tijuana: 15 matches (all competitions with data).

Necaxa at home · Club Tijuana away

Necaxa at home

2G1E5P

DLLLL

Club Tijuana away

0G6E1P

DDDDD

When do they score and concede?

Necaxa · goals by minute in 15 matches scored conceded

Club Tijuana · goals by minute in 15 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Necaxa

Scores first in 7 of 15 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 1.

Club Tijuana

Scores first in 10 of 13 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 0.

Players in form

Necaxa

M. Espindola · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

J. Carranza · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

J. Valencia · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Club Tijuana

Adonis Preciado · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

José Rivero · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Elias Manoel · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3Necaxa to win

4Draws

3Club Tijuana to win

10 matches · 2.9 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-03-21	Necaxa 3-0 Club Tijuana	Liga MX
2025-09-01	Club Tijuana 3-0 Necaxa	Liga MX
2025-04-05	Club Tijuana 1-2 Necaxa	Liga MX
2024-10-19	Necaxa 1-2 Club Tijuana	Liga MX
2024-04-06	Club Tijuana 2-3 Necaxa	Liga MX
2024-01-06	Necaxa 1-3 Club Tijuana	Friendlies Clubs

Standings

Liga MX standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Cruz Azul	16	+11	32
2	Club América	16	+15	30
3	Guadalajara Chivas	16	+11	30
4	Toluca	16	+14	27
5	Atlas	16	-3	27
6	Santos Laguna	16	+3	25
7	Club León	16	+2	23
8	CF Pachuca	16	+9	22
9	Club Tijuana	16	+3	22
10	Monterrey	15	+1	21
11	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	16	-2	21
12	Club Querétaro	15	-5	20
13	Puebla	16	-4	19
14	Atlético San Luis	16	-5	19
15	Tigres UANL	16	-8	15
16	Atlante FC	16	-10	14
17	Necaxa	16	-11	13
18	FC Juárez	16	-21	11

More stats

Referee: Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez

14 matches · 1.9 yellows and 0.14 reds per match · 0.57 penalties

Half-time

Necaxa: 5 days since last match · Club Tijuana: 5 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 03:30 UTC.