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Navalcarnero vs Real Betis prediction

Spain · Copa del Rey

NavalcarneroLW

13:00Thu Nov 12

Real BetisWLWDW

9%12%79%

Probabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo

Thursday, November 12 · 13:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo

🎯 Model pick

Real Betis to win

79%

Partial data

Real Betis have won 3 of their last 5 (W L W D W)
Away, Real Betis are 4W 2D 2L this season
Bartra is on fire: 2 goals in his last 4 matches

⚡ Summary

79%Real Betis to win@1.27 73%Over 2.5 goals@1.36 48%Both teams to score@2.07 0-2Most likely score · 9%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Navalcarnero and Real Betis meet in the Copa del Rey.

The PickMania model gives Navalcarnero a 9% chance of winning, 12% for the draw and 79% for Real Betis.

4.1 total goals are expected (1.0 from Navalcarnero and 3.1 from Real Betis): over 2.5 goals has a 73% chance and both teams to score 48%.

The most likely score is 0-2.

Probabilities

9%Navalcarnero to win@11.16

12%Draw@8.20

79%Real Betis to win@1.27

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score48%

Navalcarnero or draw21%

Real Betis or draw91%

Navalcarnero to score60%

Real Betis to score94%

Most likely scores

0-29%0-38%1-27%1-37%0-17%

Expected goals per the model: Navalcarnero 0.97 · Real Betis 3.13

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 4.10.

Corners, cards and first half

⚽ Goals per team

25%Navalcarnero +1.5@3.95

82%Real Betis +1.5@1.22

3%Navalcarnero to win to nil@30.67

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Real Betis · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

NavalcarneroReal Betis

0.0Goals scored per match1.8

0.0Goals conceded per match1.3

0%Matches with over 1.5 goals63%

0%Matches with over 2.5 goals50%

0%Both teams to score56%

0%Clean sheet44%

0%Matches without scoring6%

Navalcarnero: 0 matches · Real Betis: 16 matches (all competitions with data).

Navalcarnero at home · Real Betis away

Navalcarnero at home

0G0E0P

Real Betis away

4G2E2P

WLDDW

When do they score and concede?

Real Betis · goals by minute in 16 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Real Betis

Scores first in 10 of 15 matches and wins 9 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Navalcarnero

Sin datos

Real Betis

Marc Bartra · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Isco · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Rodrigo Riquelme · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

More stats

Half-time

Navalcarnero: 344 days since last match · Real Betis: 4 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.