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Napoli vs Lazio prediction
Italy · Serie A
Napoli
LazioPre-match probabilities
Sunday, 8 November · 06:30 (Peru time) · Maradona Stadium · Referee: Luca J. Pairetto
Over 1.5 goals
81%- 2+ goals in 11 of 14 Napoli matches
- Also in 9 of 11 Lazio matches
- Head to head: 2.3 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Napoli 1.47 · Lazio 1.58
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.05.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.5 in total · Napoli 4.3 · Lazio 5.2
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.3
⏱️ First half
39% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.18
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Napoli: 14 matches · Lazio: 11 matches (all competitions with data).
Napoli at home · Lazio away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 9 of 14 matches and wins 5 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 0.
Scores first in 8 of 11 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 2.
Players in form
Scott McTominay · 5 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Matteo Politano · 2 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
Kevin De Bruyne · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Gustav Isaksen · 4 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Tijjani Noslin · 2 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
Mattia Zaccagni · 1 gol, 3 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.3 goals per match
| 2026-04-18 | Napoli 0-2 Lazio | Serie A |
| 2026-01-04 | Lazio 0-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| 2025-02-15 | Lazio 2-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-12-08 | Napoli 0-1 Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-12-05 | Lazio 3-1 Napoli | Coppa Italia |
| 2024-01-28 | Lazio 0-0 Napoli | Serie A |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 | Como | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 | Parma | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | -13 | 5 |
More stats
1 matches · 2.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties
Napoli: 3 days since last match · Lazio: 6 days
A. Buongiorno
Patric
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 14:00 UTC.