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Nacional Potosí vs Real Potosí prediction

Bolivia · Primera División
Nacional Potosí badgeNacional Potosí#7 · 33 ptsDWLDL
1 - 1Full time
Real Potosí badgeReal Potosí#5 · 40 ptsDLWWW

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Luis Alí 39'⚽ juan orellana 47'🟥 luis pavia 61'

Sunday, November 8 · 14:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Real Potosí to score

76%
Full data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

88'🔁 Sub: Tommy Tobar · Wilson ÁlvarezNacional Potosí
88'🔁 Sub: M. Tomianovic · R. ÁvilaNacional Potosí
76'🔁 Sub: G. Añazgo · Erlan Boris Condori GalvarroReal Potosí
76'🔁 Sub: Stiven Plaza · Igor SoaresReal Potosí
76'🔁 Sub: Luis Alí · Jeferson Rivas TiradoReal Potosí
74'🟨 Tommy TobarNacional Potosí
66'🔁 Sub: Maicon Solis · D. HoyosNacional Potosí
64'🔁 Sub: J. Thomas · Imanol CárdenasReal Potosí
64'🔁 Sub: Gerardo Maximiliano·Gomez · Hugo RojasReal Potosí
61'🟥 luis paviaNacional Potosí
47'⚽ juan orellana assist M. TomianovicNacional Potosí
45'🔁 Sub: Schneider Peña Vaca · Weslen JuniorNacional Potosí
44'🟨 J. ThomasReal Potosí
44'🟨 luis paviaNacional Potosí
39'⚽ Luis Alí assist Edgar Daniel Cuellar MonteroReal Potosí
19'🟨 M. TomianovicNacional Potosí

Win probability minute by minute

Nacional PotosíDrawReal Potosí
At kick-off31%31%38%Full time0%100%0%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

31%Nacional Potosí to win@3.27
31%Draw@3.21
38%Real Potosí to win@2.61
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams to score60%
Nacional Potosí or draw62%
Real Potosí or draw69%
Nacional Potosí to score72%
Real Potosí to score76%

Most likely scores

1-114%0-09%0-18%1-28%2-17%

Expected goals per the model: Nacional Potosí 1.29 · Real Potosí 1.45

How many goals will there be?

6%0 goals18%1 goals24%2 goals22%3 goals15%4 goals14%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.74.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.4 in total · Nacional Potosí 4.5 · Real Potosí 4.8

56%Over 8.5@1.80
45%Over 9.5@2.21
36%Over 10.5@2.81
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.7

65%Over 3.5@1.54
49%Over 4.5@2.06
34%Over 5.5@2.96

⏱️ First half

40% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.09

66%Goal in the 1st half@1.51
30%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.36
81%Goal in the 2st half@1.24

⚽ Goals per team

37%Nacional Potosí +1.5@2.71
43%Real Potosí +1.5@2.35
15%Nacional Potosí to win to nil@6.72

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.31Expected goals (xG)1.15
4Shots on target5
4Saves3
1Offsides4
2Red cards0
6Shots10
2Yellow cards1
5Corners3
17Fouls9
47Possession %53

Goals in the last 10 matches

Nacional Potosí · last 10 matches
6/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.7goals per match
2.5vs Independiente Petrolero: 3-0 3-0 en Universitario de Vinto: 0-2 0-2 vs Blooming: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Gualberto Villarroel SJ: 3-0 3-0 vs Always Ready: 0-4 0-4 en Aurora: 2-2 2-2 ambosvs Bolívar: 0-1 0-1 vs Guabirá: 3-0 3-0 en Real Oruro: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Real Potosí: 1-1 1-1 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Real Potosí · last 10 matches
2/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score1.7goals per match
2.5en Aurora: 0-0 0-0 vs Real Tomayapo: 0-1 0-1 en Guabirá: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Oriente Petrolero: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Real Oruro: 2-0 2-0 vs The Strongest: 1-0 1-0 en ABB: 1-0 1-0 en San Antonio Bulo Bulo: 1-2 1-2 ambosvs Independiente Petrolero: 1-1 1-1 ambosat Nacional Potosí: 1-1 1-1 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Nacional PotosíReal Potosí
1.4Goals scored per match1.3
1.3Goals conceded per match0.7
85%Matches with over 1.5 goals71%
54%Matches with over 2.5 goals33%
50%Both teams to score46%
31%Clean sheet46%
19%Matches without scoring25%
4.5Corners won per match5.5
2.0Yellow cards per match2.0

Nacional Potosí: 26 matches · Real Potosí: 24 matches (all competitions with data).

Nacional Potosí at home · Real Potosí away

Nacional Potosí at home
8G1E4P
WLLWW
Real Potosí away
4G5E3P
LWWDD

When do they score and concede?

Nacional Potosí · goals by minute in 26 matches scored conceded
330-153316-308731-457646-609461-7571176-90
Real Potosí · goals by minute in 24 matches scored conceded
400-155216-305431-452446-601461-7514376-90

The first goal

Nacional Potosí

Scores first in 15 of 26 matches and wins 10 of them.

Concedes first in 11 and avoids defeat in 2.

Real Potosí

Scores first in 9 of 20 matches and wins 9 of them.

Concedes first in 11 and avoids defeat in 6.

Players in form

Nacional Potosí

Andres Torrico · 0 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

M. Tomianovic · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

R. Ávila · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches

Real Potosí

J. Rojas · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

L. Ali · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Gerardo Maximiliano·Gomez · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Head to head

4Nacional Potosí to win
2Draws
4Real Potosí to win

10 matches · 3.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-09-22Nacional Potosí 0-1 Real PotosíCopa de la División Profesional
2026-09-20Real Potosí 2-2 Nacional PotosíCopa de la División Profesional
2026-07-12Real Potosí 1-1 Nacional PotosíPrimera División
2026-02-08Nacional Potosí 0-1 Real PotosíTorneo Amistoso de Verano
2026-02-01Real Potosí 1-0 Nacional PotosíTorneo Amistoso de Verano
2021-09-26Nacional Potosí 4-2 Real PotosíPrimera División

Standings

Primera División standings
#TeamPGDPts
1Bolívar25+3760
2Always Ready25+4257
3The Strongest25+1748
4Oriente Petrolero25+1241
5Real Potosí25+1440
6Aurora25+436
7Nacional Potosí25+433
8Guabirá25-1033
9Blooming25+631
10Real Oruro25-1731
11Independiente Petrolero25-1030
12San Antonio Bulo Bulo25-2227
13Real Tomayapo25-2323
14Universitario de Vinto25-1722
15Gualberto Villarroel SJ25-1720
16ABB25-2020

More stats

Half-time

Nacional Potosí: 8 days since last match · Real Potosí: 8 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 21:30 UTC.

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