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Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock prediction

Poland · Ekstraklasa

Motor Lublin#10 · 19 ptsWDWWD

3 - 2Full time

Wisla Plock#12 · 15 ptsDLWLW

50%29%21%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Bartosz Bereszyński 2'⚽ Afonso Silva 31'⚽ Olaf Kobacki 33'⚽ Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye 54'🟥 Marcus Haglind Sangre 81'⚽ Karol Czubak 90'

Friday, November 6 · 12:00 (Peru time) · Motor Lublin Arena · Referee: Marcin Kochanek

🎯 Model pick

Motor Lublin to score

83%

Full data

Motor Lublin scored in 11 of 13 matches this season
Motor Lublin average 1.5 goals per match
Wisla Plock concede 1.5 goals per match

⚡ Summary

50%Motor Lublin to win@2.00 55%Over 2.5 goals@1.83 60%Both teams to score@1.66 45%Corners +9.5 (9.3)@2.2440%Cards +4.5 (4.2)@2.511-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+10🟨 Mbaye Jacques NdiayeMotor Lublin

90'+7⚽ Karol CzubakMotor Lublin

90'+5🟨 Filip LubereckiMotor Lublin

90'+1🟨 Alioune Oumar TallMotor Lublin

83'🔁 Sub: Adam Radwanski · Krystian PomorskiWisla Plock

81'🟥 Marcus Haglind SangreWisla Plock

80'🔁 Sub: Bartosz Bereszyński · Marek Kristian BartosMotor Lublin

80'🔁 Sub: Fabio Ronaldo Costa Conceicao · Makan AikoMotor Lublin

80'🔁 Sub: Christopher Simon · Paskal Konrad MeyerMotor Lublin

77'🟨 Łukasz SekulskiWisla Plock

76'🟨 Marcus Haglind SangreWisla Plock

71'🔁 Sub: Olaf Kobacki · Fabian HiszpańskiWisla Plock

71'🔁 Sub: Samuel Akere · Jurica PrširWisla Plock

63'🔁 Sub: Yacine Bourhane · Alioune Oumar TallMotor Lublin

63'🔁 Sub: Thomas Santos · Kamil LukoszekMotor Lublin

63'🔁 Sub: Łukasz Sekulski · Said HamulicWisla Plock

56'🟨 Thomas SantosMotor Lublin

54'⚽ Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye assist Fabio Ronaldo Costa ConceicaoMotor Lublin

35'🟨 Yacine BourhaneMotor Lublin

33'⚽ Olaf Kobacki assist Samuel AkereWisla Plock

31'⚽ Afonso Silva assist Samuel AkereWisla Plock

16'🟨 Samuel AkereWisla Plock

2'⚽ Bartosz Bereszyński assist Fabio Ronaldo Costa ConceicaoMotor Lublin

Win probability minute by minute

Motor LublinDrawWisla Plock

At kick-off50%29%21%Full time0%100%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

50%Motor Lublin to win@2.00

29%Draw@3.49

21%Wisla Plock to win@4.71

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score60%

Motor Lublin or draw79%

Wisla Plock or draw50%

Motor Lublin to score83%

Wisla Plock to score68%

Most likely scores

1-113%2-19%1-09%2-08%0-08%

Expected goals per the model: Motor Lublin 1.79 · Wisla Plock 1.13

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.92.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.3 in total · Motor Lublin 4.6 · Wisla Plock 4.7

55%Over 8.5@1.82

45%Over 9.5@2.24

35%Over 10.5@2.86

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.2 · el árbitro Marcin Kochanek saca 5.0 por partido

57%Over 3.5@1.76

40%Over 4.5@2.51

26%Over 5.5@3.84

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.24

71%Goal in the 1st half@1.41

35%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.85

81%Goal in the 2st half@1.23

⚽ Goals per team

53%Motor Lublin +1.5@1.87

31%Wisla Plock +1.5@3.21

25%Motor Lublin to win to nil@4.03

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

7Shots on target5

2Saves4

1Offsides1

27Shots10

5Yellow cards2

8Corners6

0Red cards1

13Fouls12

60Possession %40

4.61Expected goals (xG)1.18

Goals in the last 10 matches

Motor Lublin · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score3.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Wisla Plock · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.9goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Motor LublinWisla Plock

1.5Goals scored per match1.0

1.7Goals conceded per match1.5

85%Matches with over 1.5 goals75%

69%Matches with over 2.5 goals50%

77%Both teams to score42%

15%Clean sheet25%

15%Matches without scoring42%

4.9Corners won per match5.8

1.9Yellow cards per match1.5

Motor Lublin: 13 matches · Wisla Plock: 12 matches (all competitions with data).

Motor Lublin at home · Wisla Plock away

Motor Lublin at home

2G2E3P

DWDLL

Wisla Plock away

2G1E4P

LLWDL

When do they score and concede?

Motor Lublin · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

Wisla Plock · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Motor Lublin

Scores first in 3 of 12 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 5.

Wisla Plock

Scores first in 4 of 11 matches and wins 4 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Motor Lublin

Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Kikis · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

M. Aiko · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Wisla Plock

Łukasz Sekulski · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Žan Rogelj · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

S. Hamulic · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

2Motor Lublin to win

3Draws

1Wisla Plock to win

6 matches · 3.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-10	Wisla Plock 0-4 Motor Lublin	Ekstraklasa
2025-11-08	Motor Lublin 1-1 Wisla Plock	Ekstraklasa
2025-07-11	Motor Lublin 2-2 Wisla Plock	Friendlies Clubs
2025-01-10	Motor Lublin 2-1 Wisla Plock	Friendlies Clubs
2024-05-05	Wisla Plock 1-0 Motor Lublin	I Liga
2023-11-05	Motor Lublin 2-2 Wisla Plock	I Liga

Standings

Ekstraklasa standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	+21	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	+11	31
3	Legia Warszawa	14	+10	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	+5	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	+3	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	+1	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	+4	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	+5	21
9	Jagiellonia	13	0	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	-2	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	-7	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	-7	15
13	Widzew Łódź	14	+1	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	-12	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	-7	12
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	-8	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	-8	10
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	-10	8

More stats

Referee: Marcin Kochanek

5 matches · 4.7 yellows and 0.33 reds per match · 0.67 penalties

Half-time

Motor Lublin: 7 days since last match · Wisla Plock: 6 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 19:30 UTC.