Home › International · UEFA Nations League › Montenegro vs Letonia
Montenegro vs Latvia prediction
International · UEFA Nations League
Montenegro
LatviaProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 14:45 (Peru time) · Gradski Stadion · Referee: Jerome Brisard
Over 1.5 goals
75%- 2+ goals in 6 of 8 Montenegro matches
- Also in 3 of 4 Latvia matches
- Picky expects 2.8 goals (2.2 - 0.6)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Montenegro and Latvia meet in the UEFA Nations League.
The PickMania model gives Montenegro a 73% chance of winning, 18% for the draw and 9% for Latvia.
2.8 total goals are expected (2.2 from Montenegro and 0.6 from Latvia): over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance and both teams to score 40%.
The most likely score is 2-0.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Montenegro 2.19 · Latvia 0.62
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.81.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.3 in total · Montenegro 6.5 · Latvia 2.9
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 2.7
⏱️ First half
34% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.96
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Montenegro: 8 matches · Latvia: 4 matches (all competitions with data).
Montenegro at home · Latvia away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 5 of 7 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 2 and avoids defeat in 2.
Scores first in 1 of 3 matches and wins 0 of them.
Concedes first in 2 and avoids defeat in 0.
Players in form
M. Osmajic · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Nikola Krstović · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches
V. Adzic · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Eduards Daskevics · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
M. Strods · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
K. Cudars · 0 goles, 1 assists in 2 matches
Head to head
4 matches · 2.0 goals per match
| 2026-10-02 | Latvia 1-2 Montenegro | UEFA Nations League |
| 2021-09-07 | Montenegro 0-0 Latvia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| 2021-03-24 | Latvia 1-2 Montenegro | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| 2020-10-07 | Montenegro 1-1 Latvia | Friendlies |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 2 | Cyprus | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | -4 | 1 |
More stats
4 matches · 4.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.25 penalties
Montenegro: 38 days since last match · Latvia: 38 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 08:47 UTC.