EN ▾
Español
Português
Русский
Română
БългарскиHome › Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX › Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG
Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG prediction
Mexico · Liga de Expansión MXProbability of each result according to the model
Thursday, November 12 · 21:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Morelos
Over 1.5 goals
76%- 2+ goals in 14 of 17 Monarcas matches
- Also in 16 of 17 Leones Negros UDG matches
- Head to head: 2.5 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG meet in the Liga de Expansión MX.
The PickMania model gives Monarcas a 35% chance of winning, 33% for the draw and 32% for Leones Negros UDG.
2.7 total goals are expected (1.4 from Monarcas and 1.3 from Leones Negros UDG): over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance and both teams to score 58%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Monarcas 1.45 · Leones Negros UDG 1.29
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.74.
Corners, cards and first half
⏱️ First half
46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.27
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Monarcas: 17 matches · Leones Negros UDG: 17 matches (all competitions with data).
Monarcas at home · Leones Negros UDG away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 9 of 17 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 4.
Scores first in 13 of 17 matches and wins 9 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.
Players in form
Josecarlos Van Rankin · 2 goals, 1 assists in 5 matches
D. Aguilar · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Ruben Del Campo · 0 goals, 2 assists in 3 matches
Sergio hernandez · 2 goals, 0 assists in 5 matches
Juan Brigido · 2 goals, 0 assists in 5 matches
Luis Razo · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.5 goals per match
| Fecha | Local | Visitante | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19-09-2026 | Monarcas  | 2-0 |  Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 04-04-2026 | Leones Negros UDG | 2-0 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 26-10-2025 | Monarcas | 2-3 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 11-05-2025 | Leones Negros UDG | 2-0 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 03-05-2025 | Monarcas | 2-0 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 20-03-2025 | Leones Negros UDG | 2-1 | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Standings
Leones Negros UDG es 2.º con 30 pts y Monarcas 3.º con 26: 4 puntos de diferencia.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36:18 | +18 | 30 | LWDWW |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 34:20 | +14 | 30 | WDLWW |
| 3 | Monarcas | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26:19 | +7 | 26 | DDLWL |
| 4 |  Piratas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 27:15 | +12 | 25 | WLWWD |
| 5 |  Cancún | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28:18 | +10 | 25 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Venados FC | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 31:25 | +6 | 25 | WDDWD |
| 7 |  Durango | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21:15 | +6 | 24 | WDWLW |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 29:27 | +2 | 22 | DWDWW |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 15:25 | -10 | 22 | LWWWW |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 26:26 | 0 | 18 | LDLLL |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 25:28 | -3 | 18 | LWLLD |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 17 | DLLLD |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 23:32 | -9 | 16 | LLWLL |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15:25 | -10 | 15 | LDWLL |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17:24 | -7 | 14 | DWWLL |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 11:44 | -33 | 7 | DLLLL |
Resaltados: los dos equipos de este partido · G/E/P = ganados, empatados, perdidos · Form: últimos 5 partidos, del más antiguo al más reciente.
More stats
Monarcas: 5 days since last match · Leones Negros UDG: 4 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-12 00:47 UTC.