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Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG prediction
Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX
Monarcas
Leones Negros UDGProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Tuesday, November 10 · 19:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Morelos
Over 1.5 goals
76%- 2+ goals in 14 of 17 Monarcas matches
- Also in 16 of 17 Leones Negros UDG matches
- Head to head: 2.5 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
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Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG meet in the Liga de Expansión MX.
The PickMania model gives Monarcas a 35% chance of winning, 33% for the draw and 32% for Leones Negros UDG.
2.7 total goals are expected (1.4 from Monarcas and 1.3 from Leones Negros UDG): over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance and both teams to score 58%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Monarcas 1.45 · Leones Negros UDG 1.29
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.74.
Corners, cards and first half
⏱️ First half
46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.27
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Monarcas: 17 matches · Leones Negros UDG: 17 matches (all competitions with data).
Monarcas at home · Leones Negros UDG away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 9 of 17 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 4.
Scores first in 13 of 17 matches and wins 9 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.
Players in form
Josecarlos Van Rankin · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
D. Aguilar · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Ruben Del Campo · 0 goles, 2 assists in 3 matches
Sergio hernandez · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Juan Brigido · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Luis Razo · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.5 goals per match
| 2026-09-20 | Monarcas 2-0 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-04-05 | Leones Negros UDG 2-0 Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-10-26 | Monarcas 2-3 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-05-11 | Leones Negros UDG 2-0 Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-05-04 | Monarcas 2-0 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-03-21 | Leones Negros UDG 2-1 Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 | Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 | Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 | Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 | Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More stats
Monarcas: 2 days since last match · Leones Negros UDG: 2 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-10 23:50 UTC.