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Moldova vs Kazakhstan prediction

International · UEFA Nations League

Moldova#3 · 4 ptsLWDLD

12:00Fri Nov 13

Kazakhstan#4 · 2 ptsDLLDL

36%31%33%

Probabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo

Friday, November 13 · 12:00 (Peru time)

🎯 Model pick

Moldova to score

68%

Partial data

Kazakhstan concede 1.8 goals per match
Kazakhstan kept a clean sheet in only 0 of 6
Kazakhstan in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5

⚡ Summary

36%Moldova to win@2.80 39%Over 2.5 goals@2.56 45%Both teams to score@2.21 63%Corners +9.5 (11.2)@1.5943%Cards +4.5 (4.4)@2.321-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Moldova and Kazakhstan meet in the UEFA Nations League.

The PickMania model gives Moldova a 36% chance of winning, 31% for the draw and 33% for Kazakhstan.

2.3 total goals are expected (1.2 from Moldova and 1.1 from Kazakhstan): over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance and both teams to score 45%.

The most likely score is 1-1.

Probabilities

36%Moldova to win@2.80

31%Draw@3.19

33%Kazakhstan to win@3.04

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score45%

Moldova or draw67%

Kazakhstan or draw64%

Moldova to score68%

Kazakhstan to score66%

Most likely scores

1-114%0-013%1-011%0-111%2-17%

Expected goals per the model: Moldova 1.16 · Kazakhstan 1.11

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.27.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 11.2 in total · Moldova 5.0 · Kazakhstan 6.2

72%Over 8.5@1.39

63%Over 9.5@1.59

53%Over 10.5@1.88

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.4

60%Over 3.5@1.67

43%Over 4.5@2.32

29%Over 5.5@3.47

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.96

62%Goal in the 1st half@1.62

25%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@4.00

73%Goal in the 2st half@1.37

⚽ Goals per team

32%Moldavia +1.5@3.10

30%Kazajistán +1.5@3.28

21%Moldova to win to nil@4.66

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Moldova · last 8 matches

4/8+2.5 goals5/8both teams to score3.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Kazakhstan · last 7 matches

4/7+2.5 goals6/7both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

MoldovaKazakhstan

1.0Goals scored per match1.2

2.0Goals conceded per match1.8

100%Matches with over 1.5 goals100%

50%Matches with over 2.5 goals67%

63%Both teams to score100%

0%Clean sheet0%

38%Matches without scoring0%

4.0Corners won per match5.4

1.2Yellow cards per match2.8

Moldova: 8 matches · Kazakhstan: 6 matches (all competitions with data).

Moldova at home · Kazakhstan away

Moldova at home

0G2E2P

LDDL

Kazakhstan away

0G2E2P

LDLDL

When do they score and concede?

Moldova · goals by minute in 8 matches scored conceded

Kazakhstan · goals by minute in 6 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Moldova

Scores first in 1 of 8 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 3.

Kazakhstan

Scores first in 2 of 6 matches and wins 0 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Moldova

Sergiu Perciun · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Nicky Cleșcenco · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

V. Bogaciuc · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches

Kazakhstan

Sergey Malyy · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches

Nuraly Alip · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Maksim Samorodov · 0 goles, 2 assists in 2 matches

Head to head

2Moldova to win

0Draws

2Kazakhstan to win

4 matches · 2.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-10-02	Kazakhstan 1-2 Moldova	UEFA Nations League
2022-03-29	Kazakhstan 0-1 Moldova	UEFA Nations League
2022-03-24	Moldova 1-2 Kazakhstan	UEFA Nations League
2019-02-21	Kazakhstan 1-0 Moldova	Friendlies

Standings

UEFA Nations League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Slovakia	4	+7	10
2	Faroe Islands	4	0	4
3	Moldova	4	-5	4
4	Kazakhstan	4	-2	2

More stats

Half-time

Moldova: 37 days since last match · Kazakhstan: 38 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.