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Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar prediction

Colombia · Primera A

Millonarios#10 · 26 ptsLDDWD

15:30Sat Nov 14

Alianza Valledupar#17 · 17 ptsLLLWW

80%15%6%

Probability of each result according to the model

Saturday, November 14 · 15:30 (Peru time)

🎯 Model pick

Millonarios to win

80%

Full data

Millonarios unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 (L D D W D)
At home, Millonarios are 10W 8D 3L this season
Alianza Valledupar in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5

⚡ Summary

80%Millonarios to win@1.25 56%Over 2.5 goals@1.77 41%Both teams to score@2.43 45%Corners +9.5 (9.4)@2.2373%Cards +4.5 (6.5)@1.372-0Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar meet in the Primera A.

The PickMania model gives Millonarios a 80% chance of winning, 15% for the draw and 6% for Alianza Valledupar.

3.0 total goals are expected (2.5 from Millonarios and 0.5 from Alianza Valledupar): over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance and both teams to score 41%.

The most likely score is 2-0.

Probabilities

80%Millonarios to win@1.25

15%Draw@6.87

6%Alianza Valledupar to win@17.45

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score41%

Millonarios or draw94%

Alianza Valledupar or draw20%

Millonarios to score91%

Alianza Valledupar to score40%

Most likely scores

2-015%1-013%3-012%2-18%4-08%

Expected goals per the model: Millonarios 2.47 · Alianza Valledupar 0.51

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.98.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.4 in total · Millonarios 5.3 · Alianza Valledupar 4.1

55%Over 8.5@1.81

45%Over 9.5@2.23

35%Over 10.5@2.84

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 6.5

85%Over 3.5@1.18

73%Over 4.5@1.37

59%Over 5.5@1.68

⏱️ First half

47% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.41

76%Goal in the 1st half@1.32

41%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.43

79%Goal in the 2st half@1.26

⚽ Goals per team

71%Millonarios +1.5@1.42

9%Alianza Valledupar +1.5@10.72

54%Millonarios to win to nil@1.84

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Millonarios · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score2.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Alianza Valledupar · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score2.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

MillonariosAlianza Valledupar

1.5Goals scored per match0.8

1.1Goals conceded per match1.6

77%Matches with over 1.5 goals65%

48%Matches with over 2.5 goals46%

61%Both teams to score51%

32%Clean sheet22%

18%Matches without scoring35%

5.7Corners won per match4.3

3.0Yellow cards per match3.1

Millonarios: 44 matches · Alianza Valledupar: 37 matches (all competitions with data).

Millonarios at home · Alianza Valledupar away

Millonarios at home

10G8E3P

DDWWD

Alianza Valledupar away

4G3E11P

LLWLW

When do they score and concede?

Millonarios · goals by minute in 42 matches scored conceded

Alianza Valledupar · goals by minute in 35 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Millonarios

Scores first in 23 of 37 matches and wins 15 of them.

Concedes first in 14 and avoids defeat in 6.

Alianza Valledupar

Scores first in 15 of 32 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 17 and avoids defeat in 5.

Players in form

Millonarios

D. Ruiz · 2 goals, 1 assists in 5 matches

L. Castro · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

A. Estupinan · 2 goals, 0 assists in 5 matches

Alianza Valledupar

M. Martinez · 2 goals, 0 assists in 4 matches

I. Alba · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

F. Pardo · 0 goals, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

5Millonarios to win

2Draws

3Alianza Valledupar to win

10 matches · 3.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
Fecha	Local		Visitante	Competition
03-05-2026	Alianza Valledupar	2-2	Millonarios	Primera A
13-09-2025	Alianza Valledupar	3-0	Millonarios	Primera A
30-03-2025	Millonarios	2-0	Alianza Valledupar	Primera A
28-07-2024	Alianza Valledupar	2-1	Millonarios	Primera A
31-01-2024	Millonarios	1-1	Alianza Valledupar	Primera A
05-10-2023	Alianza Valledupar	1-2	Millonarios	Copa Colombia

Standings · Apertura

Millonarios es 10.º con 26 pts y Alianza Valledupar 17.º con 17: 9 puntos de diferencia.

Primera A standings
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts	Form
1	Atlético Nacional	19	13	1	5	35:15	+20	40	WWWDW
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31:24	+7	35	DWDLW
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29:25	+4	34	LWLWL
4	América de Cali	19	10	3	6	25:15	+10	33	DWWDD
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31:22	+9	33	WDDWW
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27:17	+10	31	LLLWW
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29:22	+7	29	WWLLW
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26:26	0	28	DWLWL
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20:16	+4	27	DWDWD
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31:23	+8	26	DWDDL
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26:24	+2	26	LLLWW
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20:25	-5	26	WLWWL
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26:20	+6	23	LLWDW
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17:20	-3	22	WLLWW
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22:27	-5	22	LDLLL
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20:33	-13	18	LWLLL
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13:27	-14	17	WWLLL
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15:32	-17	17	LWDLW
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22:35	-13	16	WLLWL
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15:32	-17	10	WDWLL