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Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar prediction
Colombia · Primera A
Millonarios
Alianza ValleduparProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 16:00 (Peru time)
Over 1.5 goals
78%- 2+ goals in 34 of 44 Millonarios matches
- Also in 24 of 37 Alianza Valledupar matches
- Head to head: 3.0 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar meet in the Primera A.
The PickMania model gives Millonarios a 74% chance of winning, 19% for the draw and 7% for Alianza Valledupar.
2.9 total goals are expected (2.3 from Millonarios and 0.6 from Alianza Valledupar): over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance and both teams to score 42%.
The most likely score is 2-0.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Millonarios 2.32 · Alianza Valledupar 0.61
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.93.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.4 in total · Millonarios 5.3 · Alianza Valledupar 4.1
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 6.5
⏱️ First half
47% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.38
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Millonarios: 44 matches · Alianza Valledupar: 37 matches (all competitions with data).
Millonarios at home · Alianza Valledupar away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 23 of 37 matches and wins 15 of them.
Concedes first in 14 and avoids defeat in 6.
Scores first in 15 of 32 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 17 and avoids defeat in 5.
Players in form
D. Ruiz · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
L. Castro · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
A. Estupinan · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
M. Martinez · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
I. Alba · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches
F. Pardo · 0 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 3.0 goals per match
| 2026-05-03 | Alianza Valledupar 2-2 Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-09-13 | Alianza Valledupar 3-0 Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2025-03-30 | Millonarios 2-0 Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 2024-07-28 | Alianza Valledupar 2-1 Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2024-01-31 | Millonarios 1-1 Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 2023-10-06 | Alianza Valledupar 1-2 Millonarios | Copa Colombia |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | +7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | +4 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | +10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | +10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | +8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | +2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | +6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | -17 | 10 |
More stats
Millonarios: 3 days since last match · Alianza Valledupar: 3 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.