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Marsaxlokk vs Hamrun Spartans prediction

Malta · Premier League

Marsaxlokk#2 · 20 ptsWLLWW

2 - 2Full time

Hamrun Spartans#4 · 17 ptsDWDDD

35%33%32%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ O. Bjelicic 11'⚽ Dodo 18'⚽ J. Minala 80' (p)🟥 90'⚽ 90'

Sunday, November 8 · 13:45 (Peru time) · Centenary Stadium

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

75%

Full data

2+ goals in 11 of 13 Marsaxlokk matches
Also in 12 of 13 Hamrun Spartans matches
Head to head: 3.6 goals per match

⚡ Summary

35%Marsaxlokk to win@2.87 49%Over 2.5 goals@2.05 56%Both teams to score@1.78 1-1Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+7🟨 Marsaxlokk

90'+6⚽ Hamrun Spartans

90'+4🟥 Marsaxlokk

89'🔁 Sub: S. Smajlagic · R. MihanaMarsaxlokk

89'🔁 Sub: M. Garcia · MatheusMarsaxlokk

83'🔁 Sub: U. Arias · D. SimkusMarsaxlokk

83'🔁 Sub: Rafael Compri · D. CeterHamrun Spartans

83'🔁 Sub: M. Caua de Aguiar Alves · J. IpaliboHamrun Spartans

80'⚽ J. Minala (pen.)Marsaxlokk

72'🟨 V. PolitoHamrun Spartans

68'❌ J. Minala (missed pen.)Marsaxlokk

56'🔁 Sub: G. Virano · M. GuillaumierHamrun Spartans

55'🔁 Sub: R. Camenzuli · A. CoricHamrun Spartans

39'🔁 Sub: S. Xerri · K. SciclunaHamrun Spartans

28'🟨 M. GarciaMarsaxlokk

24'🟨 M. Caua de Aguiar AlvesHamrun Spartans

18'⚽ DodoMarsaxlokk

14'🔁 Sub: Weder · O. BykovMarsaxlokk

13'🟨 E. PepeMarsaxlokk

11'⚽ O. BjelicicHamrun Spartans

2'🟨 WederMarsaxlokk

Win probability minute by minute

MarsaxlokkDrawHamrun Spartans

At kick-off35%33%32%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

35%Marsaxlokk to win@2.87

33%Draw@3.04

32%Hamrun Spartans to win@3.10

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score56%

Marsaxlokk or draw68%

Hamrun Spartans or draw65%

Marsaxlokk to score74%

Hamrun Spartans to score73%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-010%1-08%2-18%0-17%

Expected goals per the model: Marsaxlokk 1.36 · Hamrun Spartans 1.31

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.67.

Corners, cards and first half

⏱️ First half

50% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.33

74%Goal in the 1st half@1.36

38%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.61

74%Goal in the 2st half@1.35

⚽ Goals per team

39%Marsaxlokk +1.5@2.54

38%Hamrun Spartans +1.5@2.65

18%Marsaxlokk to win to nil@5.68

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Marsaxlokk · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Hamrun Spartans · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals9/10both teams to score3.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

MarsaxlokkHamrun Spartans

1.6Goals scored per match1.5

1.4Goals conceded per match1.2

85%Matches with over 1.5 goals92%

54%Matches with over 2.5 goals46%

54%Both teams to score77%

23%Clean sheet8%

23%Matches without scoring15%

Marsaxlokk: 13 matches · Hamrun Spartans: 13 matches (all competitions with data).

Marsaxlokk at home · Hamrun Spartans away

Marsaxlokk at home

3G1E1P

WWDWL

Hamrun Spartans away

3G3E1P

DWDWW

When do they score and concede?

Marsaxlokk · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

Hamrun Spartans · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Marsaxlokk

Scores first in 7 of 13 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 1.

Hamrun Spartans

Scores first in 7 of 13 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 3.

Players in form

Marsaxlokk

Dodo · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

E. Attard · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches

L. Caruana · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Hamrun Spartans

M. Trotta · 3 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches

L. Villela · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

J. Grech · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

4Marsaxlokk to win

1Draws

5Hamrun Spartans to win

10 matches · 3.6 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-09-18	Hamrun Spartans 4-1 Marsaxlokk	Premier League
2026-05-09	Marsaxlokk 2-1 Hamrun Spartans	Premier League
2026-04-11	Marsaxlokk 3-2 Hamrun Spartans	Premier League
2026-02-23	Hamrun Spartans 2-0 Marsaxlokk	Premier League
2025-12-14	Hamrun Spartans 1-3 Marsaxlokk	Premier League
2025-09-23	Marsaxlokk 0-2 Hamrun Spartans	Premier League

Standings

Premier League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Valletta FC	11	+14	25
2	Marsaxlokk	11	+7	20
3	Sliema Wanderers	11	+1	18
4	Hamrun Spartans	11	+4	17
5	Floriana	11	+7	16
6	Hibernians	11	-2	16
7	Birkirkara	11	+3	15
8	Zabbar St. Patrick	11	+1	14
9	Mosta	11	-5	14
10	Balzan FC	11	-1	11
11	Birzebbuga	11	-12	6
12	Gzira United	11	-17	5

More stats

Half-time

Marsaxlokk: 5 days since last match · Hamrun Spartans: 8 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 21:20 UTC.