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Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction
England · Premier League
Manchester United
Aston VillaPre-match probabilities
Sunday, November 8 · 11:30 (Peru time) · Old Trafford · Referee: Chris Kavanagh
Over 1.5 goals
83%- 2+ goals in 13 of 14 Manchester United matches
- Also in 12 of 15 Aston Villa matches
- Head to head: 3.2 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Manchester United 1.77 · Aston Villa 1.47
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.24.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.3 in total · Manchester United 5.2 · Aston Villa 4.1
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.8 · el árbitro Chris Kavanagh saca 5.3 por partido
⏱️ First half
43% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.41
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Manchester United: 14 matches · Aston Villa: 15 matches (all competitions with data).
Manchester United at home · Aston Villa away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 5 of 14 matches and wins 1 of them.
Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 3.
Scores first in 8 of 14 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
Matheus Cunha · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Bruno Fernandes · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches
Joshua Zirkzee · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches
Nicolas Jackson · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Ibrahim Mbaye · 0 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Ross Barkley · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 3.2 goals per match
| 2026-03-15 | Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2025-12-21 | Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2025-05-25 | Manchester United 2-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2024-10-06 | Aston Villa 0-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2024-02-11 | Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2023-12-26 | Manchester United 3-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | +19 | 22 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | -14 | 7 |
More stats
19 matches · 4.9 yellows and 0.36 reds per match · 0.07 penalties
Manchester United: 4 days since last match · Aston Villa: 4 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 19:00 UTC.