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Luxembourg vs Estonia prediction

International · UEFA Nations League

Luxembourg#4 · 3 ptsLLLWW

14:45Fri Nov 13

Estonia#2 · 6 ptsDWDDW

42%31%27%

Probabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo

Friday, November 13 · 14:45 (Peru time)

🎯 Model pick

Luxembourg or draw

73%

Partial data

⚡ Summary

42%Luxembourg to win@2.39 36%Over 2.5 goals@2.80 44%Both teams to score@2.27 47%Corners +9.5 (9.6)@2.1444%Cards +4.5 (4.4)@2.290-0Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Luxembourg and Estonia meet in the UEFA Nations League.

The PickMania model gives Luxembourg a 42% chance of winning, 31% for the draw and 27% for Estonia.

2.1 total goals are expected (1.2 from Luxembourg and 0.9 from Estonia): over 2.5 goals has a 36% chance and both teams to score 44%.

The most likely score is 0-0.

Probabilities

42%Luxembourg to win@2.39

31%Draw@3.23

27%Estonia to win@3.67

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Luxembourg or draw73%

Estonia or draw58%

Luxembourg to score69%

Estonia to score59%

Most likely scores

0-014%1-014%1-113%0-110%2-08%

Expected goals per the model: Luxembourg 1.21 · Estonia 0.92

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.13.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.6 in total · Luxembourg 4.7 · Estonia 4.9

57%Over 8.5@1.75

47%Over 9.5@2.14

37%Over 10.5@2.70

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.4

60%Over 3.5@1.65

44%Over 4.5@2.29

29%Over 5.5@3.42

⏱️ First half

70% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.48

77%Goal in the 1st half@1.29

44%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.29

48%Goal in the 2st half@2.10

⚽ Goals per team

34%Luxemburgo +1.5@2.93

23%Estonia +1.5@4.26

27%Luxembourg to win to nil@3.72

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Luxembourg · last 6 matches

2/6+2.5 goals1/6both teams to score1.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Estonia · last 5 matches

1/5+2.5 goals2/5both teams to score1.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

LuxembourgEstonia

0.5Goals scored per match0.5

1.3Goals conceded per match0.3

50%Matches with over 1.5 goals25%

33%Matches with over 2.5 goals0%

17%Both teams to score25%

17%Clean sheet75%

67%Matches without scoring50%

3.6Corners won per match4.8

2.4Yellow cards per match2.0

Luxembourg: 6 matches · Estonia: 4 matches (all competitions with data).

Luxembourg at home · Estonia away

Luxembourg at home

0G0E3P

LLL

Estonia away

0G2E0P

DDW

When do they score and concede?

Luxembourg · goals by minute in 6 matches scored conceded

Estonia · goals by minute in 4 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Luxembourg

Scores first in 1 of 6 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 1.

Estonia

Scores first in 1 of 2 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 1 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Luxembourg

Leandro Barreiro · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

Danel Sinani · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

Vincent Thill · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Estonia

Rasmus Peetson · 1 gol, 1 assists in 3 matches

Maksim Paskotsi · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

0Luxembourg to win

0Draws

1Estonia to win

1 matches · 1.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-10-03	Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg	UEFA Nations League

Standings

UEFA Nations League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Iceland	4	+6	8
2	Estonia	4	+1	6
3	Bulgaria	4	-2	4
4	Luxembourg	4	-5	3

More stats

Half-time

Luxembourg: 38 days since last match · Estonia: 38 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.