Home › International · UEFA Europa League › Lillestrom vs Plzen
Lillestrom vs Plzen prediction
International · UEFA Europa League
Lillestrom
PlzenPre-match probabilities
Thursday, November 5 · 12:45 (Peru time) · Åråsen Stadion · Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov
Over 1.5 goals
79%- 2+ goals in 26 of 30 Lillestrom matches
- Also in 17 of 18 Plzen matches
- Picky expects 3.0 goals (1.5 - 1.5)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Lillestrom 1.52 · Plzen 1.51
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.03.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.2 in total · Lillestrom 5.2 · Plzen 5.0
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 5.1 · el árbitro Radoslav Gidzhenov saca 6.7 por partido
⏱️ First half
46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.39
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Lillestrom: 30 matches · Plzen: 18 matches (all competitions with data).
Lillestrom at home · Plzen away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 9 of 24 matches and wins 8 of them.
Concedes first in 15 and avoids defeat in 4.
Scores first in 10 of 17 matches and wins 6 of them.
Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 0.
Players in form
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
Felix Vá · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Thomas Lehne Olsen · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Amar Memić · 2 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
Adam Gabriel · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Christopher Kabongo · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 | Unión St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 | Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More stats
11 matches · 6.3 yellows and 0.33 reds per match · 0.67 penalties
Lillestrom: 4 days since last match · Plzen: 4 days
E. B. Garnas, C. Jebara
V. Jemelka, M. Tvrdon
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 00:40 UTC.