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Leones Negros UDG vs Durango prediction
Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX
Leones Negros UDG
DurangoPre-match probabilities
Sunday, November 8 · 13:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Jalisco
Over 1.5 goals
73%- 2+ goals in 15 of 16 Leones Negros UDG matches
- Also in 9 of 16 Durango matches
- Picky expects 2.5 goals (1.3 - 1.2)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Leones Negros UDG 1.33 · Durango 1.22
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.55.
Corners, cards and first half
⏱️ First half
46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.17
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Leones Negros UDG: 16 matches · Durango: 16 matches (all competitions with data).
Leones Negros UDG at home · Durango away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 12 of 16 matches and wins 8 of them.
Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.
Scores first in 9 of 14 matches and wins 8 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
O. Gil · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
J. Perez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches
J. Cazares · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
J. Munoz · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
J. Angulo · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
J. Gonzalez · 0 goles, 2 assists in 3 matches
Head to head
4 matches · 1.5 goals per match
| 2026-11-06 | Durango 1-0 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-08-23 | Durango 1-2 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-02-08 | Leones Negros UDG 1-0 Durango | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2022-08-18 | Durango 1-0 Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 | Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 | Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 | Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 | Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 | Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More stats
Leones Negros UDG: 2 days since last match · Durango: 2 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 20:30 UTC.