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León vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction

Mexico · Liga MX

LeónLDWLD

1 - 1Full time

Guadalajara ChivasWWWDD

21%29%50%

Pre-match probabilities

🟥 Jose Rodriguez 53'⚽ Ricardo Marín 69'⚽ Paul Bellón 87'

Sunday, November 8 · 21:10 (Peru time) · Estadio León · Referee: Guillermo Pacheco

🎯 Model pick

Guadalajara Chivas to score

83%

Full data

Guadalajara Chivas scored in 13 of 15 matches this season
Guadalajara Chivas average 1.7 goals per match
León concede 1.3 goals per match

⚡ Summary

50%Guadalajara Chivas to win@2.01 54%Over 2.5 goals@1.84 60%Both teams to score@1.67 62%Corners +9.5 (11.1)@1.6132%Cards +4.5 (3.7)@3.081-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

87'⚽ Paul Bellón assist Jhohan RomanaLeón

84'🔁 Sub: Daniel Aguirre · Jose CastilloGuadalajara Chivas

84'🔁 Sub: Fernando González · Luis ReyGuadalajara Chivas

76'🔁 Sub: Efrain Alvarez · Jordan CarrilloGuadalajara Chivas

75'🔁 Sub: Ivan Moreno · Edgar GuerraLeón

75'🔁 Sub: Juan Guevara · Ismael DíazLeón

69'⚽ Ricardo Marín assist Daniel AguirreGuadalajara Chivas

67'🔁 Sub: Diber Cambindo · Paul BellónLeón

67'🔁 Sub: Sebastián Vegas · Christopher MoraLeón

60'🔁 Sub: Richard Ledezma · Ricardo MarínGuadalajara Chivas

60'🔁 Sub: Omar Govea · Brian GutierrezGuadalajara Chivas

58'🔁 Sub: Fernando Beltran · Jesús LaraLeón

53'🟥 Jose RodriguezLeón

51'🟨 Diber CambindoLeón

23'🟨 Juan GuevaraLeón

20'📺 Richard LedezmaGuadalajara Chivas

18'🟨 Richard LedezmaGuadalajara Chivas

Win probability minute by minute

LeónDrawGuadalajara Chivas

At kick-off21%29%50%Full time0%100%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

21%León to win@4.76

29%Draw@3.41

50%Guadalajara Chivas to win@2.01

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score60%

León or draw50%

Guadalajara Chivas or draw79%

León to score68%

Guadalajara Chivas to score83%

Most likely scores

1-113%1-29%0-19%0-28%0-08%

Expected goals per the model: León 1.13 · Guadalajara Chivas 1.78

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.91.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 11.1 in total · León 4.4 · Guadalajara Chivas 6.7

72%Over 8.5@1.40

62%Over 9.5@1.61

53%Over 10.5@1.90

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.7

49%Over 3.5@2.04

32%Over 4.5@3.08

20%Over 5.5@5.03

⏱️ First half

35% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.01

64%Goal in the 1st half@1.57

27%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.72

85%Goal in the 2st half@1.18

⚽ Goals per team

31%León +1.5@3.21

53%Guadalajara Chivas +1.5@1.88

10%León to win to nil@10.53

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.40Expected goals (xG)1.65

5Shots on target6

5Saves4

3Offsides2

1Red cards0

8Shots18

2Yellow cards1

2Corners6

10Fouls10

33Possession %67

Goals in the last 10 matches

León · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score3.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Guadalajara Chivas · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

LeónGuadalajara Chivas

1.5Goals scored per match1.7

1.3Goals conceded per match0.9

87%Matches with over 1.5 goals73%

40%Matches with over 2.5 goals33%

67%Both teams to score47%

27%Clean sheet40%

7%Matches without scoring13%

4.3Corners won per match7.6

2.1Yellow cards per match1.1

León: 15 matches · Guadalajara Chivas: 15 matches (all competitions with data).

León at home · Guadalajara Chivas away

León at home

4G1E2P

DLWWW

Guadalajara Chivas away

3G4E0P

WDDWD

When do they score and concede?

León · goals by minute in 15 matches scored conceded

Guadalajara Chivas · goals by minute in 15 matches scored conceded

The first goal

León

Scores first in 10 of 15 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 0.

Guadalajara Chivas

Scores first in 10 of 15 matches and wins 8 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 3.

Players in form

León

Ismael Díaz · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Jose Alvarado · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

D. Cambindo · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Guadalajara Chivas

Santiago Sandoval · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Efrain Alvarez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

A. Sepulveda · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

Head to head

4León to win

1Draws

5Guadalajara Chivas to win

10 matches · 2.4 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-03-19	Guadalajara Chivas 5-0 León	Liga MX
2025-07-20	León 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas	Liga MX
2025-01-29	León 2-1 Guadalajara Chivas	Liga MX
2024-09-19	Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 León	Liga MX
2024-03-09	Guadalajara Chivas 1-2 León	Liga MX
2023-09-09	Guadalajara Chivas 2-0 León	Friendlies Clubs

More stats

Half-time

León: 7 days since last match · Guadalajara Chivas: 8 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-09 04:40 UTC.