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Lens vs Marseille prediction
France · Ligue 1
Lens
MarseillePre-match probabilities
Sunday, 8 November · 14:45 (Peru time) · Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Referee: Willy Delajod
Over 1.5 goals
81%- 2+ goals in 11 of 13 Lens matches
- Also in 9 of 13 Marseille matches
- Head to head: 2.7 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Lens 1.50 · Marseille 1.55
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.05.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.1 in total · Lens 4.9 · Marseille 4.2
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.1 · el árbitro Willy Delajod saca 2.4 por partido
⏱️ First half
35% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.06
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Lens: 13 matches · Marseille: 13 matches (all competitions with data).
Lens at home · Marseille away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 4 of 13 matches and wins 3 of them.
Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 3.
Scores first in 5 of 13 matches and wins 5 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
Florian Thauvin · 1 gol, 4 assists in 5 matches
Ruben Aguilar · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Thorgan Hazard · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches
Amine Gouiri · 3 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Igor Paixão · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Timothy Weah · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.7 goals per match
| 2026-01-24 | Marseille 3-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Lens 2-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Marseille 0-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-23 | Lens 1-3 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Marseille 2-1 Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Lens 1-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 | Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 | Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 | Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 | Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
More stats
19 matches · 2.4 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.13 penalties
Lens: 3 days since last match · Marseille: 2 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 22:20 UTC.