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Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin prediction
Poland · Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie LubinPre-match probabilities
Sunday, November 8 · 14:15 (Peru time) · Stadion Miejski · Referee: Karol Arys
Over 1.5 goals
82%- 2+ goals in 19 of 22 Lech Poznan matches
- Also in 9 of 13 Zaglebie Lubin matches
- Head to head: 2.6 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Lech Poznan 2.17 · Zaglebie Lubin 0.99
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.16.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.3 in total · Lech Poznan 6.2 · Zaglebie Lubin 4.1
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.0 · el árbitro Karol Arys saca 1.9 por partido
⏱️ First half
37% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.17
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Lech Poznan: 22 matches · Zaglebie Lubin: 13 matches (all competitions with data).
Lech Poznan at home · Zaglebie Lubin away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 16 of 21 matches and wins 13 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 2.
Scores first in 8 of 11 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 2.
Players in form
Pablo Rodriguez Delgado · 2 goles, 4 assists in 5 matches
Leo Bengtsson · 2 goles, 2 assists in 4 matches
Y. Agnero · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
S. Kerk · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
M. Regula · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
A. Lawniczak · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.6 goals per match
| 2026-03-15 | Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-09-12 | Lech Poznan 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2025-02-23 | Lech Poznan 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-08-17 | Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| 2024-02-10 | Lech Poznan 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
| 2023-08-06 | Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 13 | +21 | 32 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | +11 | 31 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | +10 | 24 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | +5 | 24 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | +3 | 24 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 14 | +1 | 23 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | +4 | 22 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 14 | +5 | 21 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 13 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 14 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | -7 | 18 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | -7 | 15 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 14 | +1 | 14 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | -12 | 14 |
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | -7 | 12 |
| 16 | Raków Częstochowa | 14 | -8 | 12 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | -8 | 10 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 14 | -10 | 8 |
More stats
17 matches · 1.9 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.43 penalties
Lech Poznan: 2 days since last match · Zaglebie Lubin: 6 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 21:50 UTC.