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Larne vs Dungannon Swifts prediction
Northern Ireland · Premiership
Larne
Dungannon SwiftsProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Friday, November 13 · 14:45 (Peru time) · Inver Park
Larne or draw
84%- At home, Larne are 5W 2D 4L this season
- #3 in the table, Dungannon Swifts #7
- Head to head: 5W 2D 3L for Larne
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
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Larne and Dungannon Swifts meet in the Premiership.
The PickMania model gives Larne a 63% chance of winning, 21% for the draw and 16% for Dungannon Swifts.
2.9 total goals are expected (2.0 from Larne and 0.9 from Dungannon Swifts): over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance and both teams to score 51%.
The most likely score is 2-0.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Larne 2.01 · Dungannon Swifts 0.90
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.91.
Corners, cards and first half
⏱️ First half
36% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.06
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Larne: 21 matches · Dungannon Swifts: 14 matches (all competitions with data).
Larne at home · Dungannon Swifts away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 11 of 19 matches and wins 9 of them.
Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 3.
Scores first in 4 of 13 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
Head to head
10 matches · 2.5 goals per match
| 2026-04-25 | Larne 8-0 Dungannon Swifts | Premiership |
| 2026-03-13 | Larne 2-1 Dungannon Swifts | Premiership |
| 2025-11-29 | Dungannon Swifts 1-2 Larne | Premiership |
| 2025-10-04 | Dungannon Swifts 2-0 Larne | Premiership |
| 2025-04-01 | Dungannon Swifts 1-1 Larne | Premiership |
| 2025-02-22 | Larne 0-1 Dungannon Swifts | Premiership |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linfield | 15 | +13 | 36 |
| 2 | Coleraine FC | 15 | +16 | 35 |
| 3 | Larne | 13 | +10 | 26 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 14 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 | Cliftonville FC | 15 | +8 | 21 |
| 6 | Carrick Rangers | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 7 | Dungannon Swifts | 14 | -4 | 18 |
| 8 | Crusaders FC | 15 | -10 | 18 |
| 9 | Ballymena United | 13 | +1 | 16 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 15 | -10 | 14 |
| 11 | Bangor | 15 | -13 | 12 |
| 12 | Portadown | 15 | -13 | 9 |
More stats
Larne: 7 days since last match · Dungannon Swifts: 6 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.