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KuPS vs Gent prediction

International · UEFA Europa Conference League
KuPS badgeKuPS#33 · 1 ptsLLWDL
0 - 0Full time
Gent badgeGent#18 · 4 ptsLWLWW

Pre-match probabilities

Thursday, November 5 · 12:45 (Peru time) · Tammela Stadium · Referee: Robert Harvey

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Gent to score

79%
Partial data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🟨 T. De VliegerGent
88'🔁 Sub: P. Parzyszek · T. JyryKuPS
85'🔁 Sub: J. Vergara · K. WilsonGent
79'🔁 Sub: M. Sonko · G. De MeyerGent
79'🔁 Sub: A. Kadri · E. H. SeckGent
75'🔁 Sub: S. Pasanen · J. EskesenKuPS
75'🔁 Sub: A. Aiki · S. HeiskanenKuPS
55'🟨 M. SonkoGent
52'🟨 T. HamalainenKuPS
23'🔁 Sub: B. Armah · G. EngvallKuPS

Win probability minute by minute

KuPSDrawGent
At kick-off14%27%59%Full time0%100%0%
0%25%50%75%100% 0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

14%KuPS to win@6.99
27%Draw@3.68
59%Gent to win@1.71
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams to score38%
KuPS or draw41%
Gent or draw86%
KuPS to score47%
Gent to score79%

Most likely scores

0-013%0-212%0-112%1-111%0-38%

Expected goals per the model: KuPS 0.65 · Gent 1.81

How many goals will there be?

9%0 goals21%1 goals26%2 goals21%3 goals13%4 goals10%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.46.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.4 in total · KuPS 4.6 · Gent 4.8

56%Over 8.5@1.79
45%Over 9.5@2.21
36%Over 10.5@2.80
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.9 · el árbitro R. Harvey saca 4.1 por partido

53%Over 3.5@1.90
36%Over 4.5@2.79
23%Over 5.5@4.42

⏱️ First half

38% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.93

60%Goal in the 1st half@1.66
24%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@4.22
78%Goal in the 2st half@1.27

⚽ Goals per team

14%KuPS +1.5@7.21
54%Gent +1.5@1.85
9%KuPS to win to nil@11.47

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1Shots on target3
6Shots20
18Fouls11
3Corners7
0Offsides1
53Possession %47
1Yellow cards2
3Saves1
0.26Expected goals (xG)1.51

Goals in the last 10 matches

KuPS · last 10 matches
3/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.4goals per match
2.5vs Vardar Skopje: 2-3 2-3 ambosen Sabah FA: 0-1 0-1 vs Sabah FA: 0-2 0-2 vs Universitatea Craiova: 1-1 1-1 ambosen Universitatea Craiova: 1-2 1-2 ambosen Shamrock Rovers: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Shamrock Rovers: 1-0 1-0 vs Trabzonspor: 2-4 2-4 ambosen Borac Banja Luka: 0-2 0-2 vs Gent: 0-0 0-0

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Gent · last 10 matches
3/10+2.5 goals2/10both teams to score2.0goals per match
2.5en Cercle Brugge: 3-0 3-0 en Genk: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Standard Liege: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Zulte Waregem: 2-0 2-0 vs Aarhus: 1-0 1-0 en SC Braga: 0-2 0-2 vs Anderlecht: 4-0 4-0 en Lommel United: 0-2 0-2 at KuPS: 0-0 0-0 vs Kortrijk: 1-0 1-0

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

KuPSGent
1.0Goals scored per match1.4
1.6Goals conceded per match0.6
80%Matches with over 1.5 goals67%
30%Matches with over 2.5 goals33%
50%Both teams to score33%
20%Clean sheet56%
30%Matches without scoring28%
5.2Corners won per match5.0
2.1Yellow cards per match1.6

KuPS: 10 matches · Gent: 18 matches (all competitions with data).

KuPS at home · Gent away

KuPS at home
1G1E3P
LWDLL
Gent away
5G2E2P
LLWDW

When do they score and concede?

KuPS · goals by minute in 10 matches scored conceded
110-150116-301431-452546-602261-754376-90
Gent · goals by minute in 18 matches scored conceded
320-153016-306231-452246-601061-7510576-90

The first goal

KuPS

Scores first in 3 of 10 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 2.

Gent

Scores first in 12 of 15 matches and wins 10 of them.

Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

KuPS

V. R. Gasc · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

G. Engvall · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

P. Pennanen · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Gent

T. Araujo · 0 goles, 4 assists in 5 matches

I. Cisse · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

A. Kadri · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

Standings

UEFA Europa Conference League standings
#TeamPGDPts
1FC Lugano3+79
2Panathinaikos3+69
3Twente3+69
4Monaco3+69
5Brighton3+57
6Brann3+47
7FC Copenhagen3+47
8Universitatea Craiova3+47
9Mjallby AIF3+47
10St. Truiden3+37
11Ajax3+66
12Trabzonspor3+36
13HNK Hajduk Split3+16
14SC Freiburg3-16
15FK Crvena Zvezda304
16Atalanta304
17SC Braga3-14
18Gent3-14
19Riga303
20FC Thun303
21Borac Banja Luka3-13
22Lincoln Red Imps FC3-33
23FK Jablonec3-12
24Aarhus3-12
25FC Nordsjaelland3-22
26Egnatia Rrogozhinë3-22
27Kairat Almaty3-42
28CSKA Sofia3-21
29FC Iberia 19993-31
30Pafos3-41
31Getafe3-41
32Heart Of Midlothian3-41
33KuPS3-41
34FC Midtjylland3-61
35Inter Club d'Escaldes3-50
36Kauno Žalgiris3-100

More stats

Referee: R. Harvey

32 matches · 3.7 yellows and 0.36 reds per match · 0.57 penalties

Half-time

KuPS: 13 days since last match · Gent: 4 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 00:30 UTC.

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