Home › Norway · Eliteserien › Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga

Kristiansund BK vs Valerenga prediction

Norway · Eliteserien

Kristiansund BK#14 · 26 ptsWDLLL

1 - 0Full time

Valerenga#8 · 32 ptsWWWLD

27%28%45%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Marius Elvius 27'

Monday, November 9 · 13:00 (Peru time) · Kristiansund Stadion · Referee: Marius Lien

🎯 Model pick

Kristiansund BK to score

79%

Full data

Kristiansund BK scored in 18 of 25 matches this season
Valerenga concede 1.8 goals per match
Valerenga kept a clean sheet in only 4 of 25

⚡ Summary

45%Valerenga to win@2.23 68%Over 2.5 goals@1.48 71%Both teams to score@1.40 66%Corners +9.5 (11.6)@1.5128%Cards +4.5 (3.4)@3.611-1Most likely score · 11%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+5🟨 Tobias Hammer SvendsenKristiansund BK

89'🟨 Leander AlvheimKristiansund BK

80'🔁 Sub: Heine Gikling Bruseth · Julius Mar Juliusson Kristiansund BK

78'🔁 Sub: Aaron Kiil Olsen · Odin Thiago HolmValerenga

73'🟨 Heine Gikling BrusethKristiansund BK

71'🟨 Gustav Ørsøe ChristensenKristiansund BK

70'🔁 Sub: Zymer Bytyqi · Adrian Kurd RønningKristiansund BK

62'🔁 Sub: Kevin Ngoyi Tshiembe · Sebastian JarlValerenga

62'🔁 Sub: Vegar Eggen Hedenstad · Ghayas ZahidValerenga

60'🔁 Sub: Sander Svendsen · Tobias Hammer SvendsenKristiansund BK

60'🔁 Sub: Syver Skeide · Wilfred George IgorKristiansund BK

52'🟨 Dennis GjengaarValerenga

45'🔁 Sub: John Kitolano · Dan Peter UlvestadKristiansund BK

40'🔁 Sub: Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter · Håvard NielsenValerenga

27'⚽ Marius ElviusKristiansund BK

Win probability minute by minute

Kristiansund BKDrawValerenga

At kick-off27%28%45%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

27%Kristiansund BK to win@3.68

28%Draw@3.57

45%Valerenga to win@2.23

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score71%

Kristiansund BK or draw55%

Valerenga or draw73%

Kristiansund BK to score79%

Valerenga to score86%

Most likely scores

1-111%2-28%1-28%2-16%1-35%

Expected goals per the model: Kristiansund BK 1.59 · Valerenga 2.02

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.61.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 11.6 in total · Kristiansund BK 5.0 · Valerenga 6.6

75%Over 8.5@1.33

66%Over 9.5@1.51

57%Over 10.5@1.76

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.4 · el árbitro Marius Lien saca 2.5 por partido

44%Over 3.5@2.29

28%Over 4.5@3.61

16%Over 5.5@6.14

⏱️ First half

48% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.72

82%Goal in the 1st half@1.22

51%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@1.95

85%Goal in the 2st half@1.18

⚽ Goals per team

47%Kristiansund BK +1.5@2.12

60%Valerenga +1.5@1.67

9%Kristiansund BK to win to nil@11.09

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.51Expected goals (xG)0.74

6Shots on target2

2Saves5

1Offsides0

17Shots13

4Yellow cards1

4Corners3

10Fouls12

0Red cards0

56Possession %44

Goals in the last 10 matches

Kristiansund BK · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score4.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Valerenga · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Kristiansund BKValerenga

1.2Goals scored per match1.7

2.0Goals conceded per match1.8

88%Matches with over 1.5 goals84%

64%Matches with over 2.5 goals60%

64%Both teams to score56%

12%Clean sheet16%

28%Matches without scoring28%

4.0Corners won per match6.6

2.1Yellow cards per match2.0

Kristiansund BK: 25 matches · Valerenga: 25 matches (all competitions with data).

Kristiansund BK at home · Valerenga away

Kristiansund BK at home

4G3E5P

DLLWW

Valerenga away

3G3E6P

WLLDD

When do they score and concede?

Kristiansund BK · goals by minute in 25 matches scored conceded

Valerenga · goals by minute in 25 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Kristiansund BK

Scores first in 13 of 24 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 11 and avoids defeat in 0.

Valerenga

Scores first in 12 of 25 matches and wins 9 of them.

Concedes first in 13 and avoids defeat in 3.

Players in form

Kristiansund BK

David Tufekcic · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Zymer Bytyqi · 1 gol, 2 assists in 3 matches

Leander Alvheim · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Valerenga

Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Mathias Grundetjern · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

3Kristiansund BK to win

0Draws

4Valerenga to win

7 matches · 3.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-29	Valerenga 3-1 Kristiansund BK	Eliteserien
2025-04-27	Kristiansund BK 0-2 Valerenga	Eliteserien
2023-12-10	Valerenga 0-2 Kristiansund BK	Eliteserien
2023-12-06	Kristiansund BK 0-2 Valerenga	Eliteserien
2022-09-11	Kristiansund BK 3-2 Valerenga	Eliteserien
2022-07-10	Valerenga 3-0 Kristiansund BK	Eliteserien

Standings

Eliteserien standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Viking	26	+42	62
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	+40	62
3	Rosenborg	26	+21	46
4	Lillestrom	26	+4	45
5	Molde	26	+20	44
6	Tromso	26	+3	40
7	Brann	26	+3	33
8	Valerenga	26	-4	32
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	-10	31
10	KFUM Oslo	26	-13	31
11	Ham-Kam	26	-15	30
12	Fredrikstad	26	-15	30
13	Sandefjord	26	-8	28
14	Kristiansund BK	26	-21	26
15	Aalesund	26	-15	24
16	Start	26	-32	19

More stats

Referee: Marius Lien

27 matches · 2.3 yellows and 0.20 reds per match · 0.33 penalties

Half-time

Kristiansund BK: 8 days since last match · Valerenga: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-09 20:30 UTC.