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Jaguares vs Bucaramanga prediction

Colombia · Primera A

Jaguares#16 · 18 ptsLLWLL

0 - 4Full time

Bucaramanga#13 · 23 ptsDWLLD

20%29%51%

Pre-match probabilities

🟥 F. Mosquera 9'⚽ B. Caicedo 12' (p)⚽ B. Caicedo 76'⚽ F. Sambueza 79'

Sunday, November 8 · 16:05 (Peru time) · Estadio Jaraguay · Referee: Andres Rojas

🎯 Model pick

Bucaramanga to score

81%

Full data

Bucaramanga scored in 28 of 37 matches this season
Bucaramanga average 1.4 goals per match
Jaguares concede 1.8 goals per match

⚡ Summary

51%Bucaramanga to win@1.95 50%Over 2.5 goals@1.98 55%Both teams to score@1.81 42%Corners +9.5 (9.1)@2.3969%Cards +4.5 (6.1)@1.451-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

89'🟨 Jaguares

81'🔁 Sub: F. Sambueza · K. LondonoBucaramanga

79'⚽ F. SambuezaBucaramanga

77'🔁 Sub: L. Flores · O. AlbornozBucaramanga

76'⚽ B. Caicedo assist F. HinestrozaBucaramanga

74'🔁 Sub: F. A. Gil Mosquera · D. LopezJaguares

74'🔁 Sub: Jopito · D. Rodriguez UrangoJaguares

74'🔁 Sub: W. De La Rosa · R. R. Colpa BolanoJaguares

63'🔁 Sub: J. Garcia · F. HinestrozaBucaramanga

62'🟨 C. RomanaBucaramanga

62'🟨 F. SambuezaBucaramanga

46'🔁 Sub: E. Batalla · N. RamirezBucaramanga

46'🔁 Sub: A. Zarate · V. CantilloBucaramanga

34'🟨 A. ZarateBucaramanga

18'🔁 Sub: J. Mejia · C. HenaoJaguares

12'⚽ B. Caicedo (pen.)Bucaramanga

11'🔁 Sub: J. Malagon · D. MartinezJaguares

9'🟥 F. MosqueraJaguares

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

20%Jaguares to win@5.05

29%Draw@3.45

51%Bucaramanga to win@1.95

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Jaguares or draw49%

Bucaramanga or draw80%

Jaguares to score64%

Bucaramanga to score81%

Most likely scores

1-113%0-110%1-29%0-29%0-09%

Expected goals per the model: Jaguares 1.02 · Bucaramanga 1.72

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.74.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.1 in total · Jaguares 4.4 · Bucaramanga 4.7

52%Over 8.5@1.91

42%Over 9.5@2.39

32%Over 10.5@3.08

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 6.1

82%Over 3.5@1.23

69%Over 4.5@1.45

54%Over 5.5@1.84

⏱️ First half

45% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.22

71%Goal in the 1st half@1.42

35%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.90

78%Goal in the 2st half@1.28

⚽ Goals per team

27%Jaguares +1.5@3.68

51%Bucaramanga +1.5@1.95

10%Jaguares to win to nil@10.29

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0Shots on target7

3Shots19

8Fouls14

3Corners5

46Possession %54

0Yellow cards3

1Red cards0

3Saves0

0.09Expected goals (xG)2.99

Goals in the last 10 matches

Jaguares · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.9goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Bucaramanga · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

JaguaresBucaramanga

1.0Goals scored per match1.4

1.8Goals conceded per match1.1

78%Matches with over 1.5 goals81%

53%Matches with over 2.5 goals49%

53%Both teams to score62%

17%Clean sheet27%

31%Matches without scoring24%

4.2Corners won per match3.5

3.1Yellow cards per match2.6

Jaguares: 36 matches · Bucaramanga: 37 matches (all competitions with data).

Jaguares at home · Bucaramanga away

Jaguares at home

8G4E6P

WWLDD

Bucaramanga away

5G6E8P

LLWWD

When do they score and concede?

Jaguares · goals by minute in 31 matches scored conceded

Bucaramanga · goals by minute in 31 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Jaguares

Scores first in 12 of 31 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 19 and avoids defeat in 4.

Bucaramanga

Scores first in 16 of 28 matches and wins 9 of them.

Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 4.

Players in form

Jaguares

A. Renteria · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Jopito · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Bucaramanga

L. Pons · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

E. Batalla · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

F. Charrupi · 0 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

2Jaguares to win

4Draws

4Bucaramanga to win

10 matches · 1.6 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-04-25	Bucaramanga 2-2 Jaguares	Primera A
2024-07-28	Bucaramanga 0-0 Jaguares	Primera A
2024-02-02	Jaguares 0-1 Bucaramanga	Primera A
2023-08-07	Bucaramanga 3-0 Jaguares	Primera A
2023-02-11	Jaguares 1-1 Bucaramanga	Primera A
2022-09-20	Jaguares 0-1 Bucaramanga	Primera A

Standings

Primera A standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Atlético Nacional	19	+20	40
2	Junior	19	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	+4	34
4	América de Cali	19	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	-14	17
18	Chico	19	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	-17	10

More stats

Half-time

Jaguares: 4 days since last match · Bucaramanga: 5 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 23:40 UTC.