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Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice prediction

Poland · Ekstraklasa

Jagiellonia#9 · 21 ptsLWWLL

1 - 0Full time

GKS Katowice#8 · 21 ptsWLLWW

38%29%33%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Ilia Shkurin 69' (p.p.)

Sunday, November 8 · 08:45 (Peru time) · Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku · Referee: Daniel Stefanski

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

84%

Full data

2+ goals in 16 of 20 Jagiellonia matches
Also in 14 of 17 GKS Katowice matches
Head to head: 3.2 goals per match

⚡ Summary

38%Jagiellonia to win@2.64 63%Over 2.5 goals@1.60 67%Both teams to score@1.49 46%Corners +9.5 (9.5)@2.1644%Cards +4.5 (4.4)@2.261-1Most likely score · 12%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🔁 Sub: Kamil Jóźwiak · jakub kucharskiJagiellonia

85'🔁 Sub: Marcin Wasielewski · Erik JirkaGKS Katowice

83'🟨 Marcin WasielewskiGKS Katowice

82'📺 Marcin WasielewskiGKS Katowice

78'🔁 Sub: Mateusz·Kowalczyk · Sebastian MilewskiGKS Katowice

78'🔁 Sub: Kacper Lukasiak · Bartosz WolskiGKS Katowice

69'⚽ Ilia Shkurin (own goal)Jagiellonia

64'🔁 Sub: Jesús Imaz · Ousmane SowJagiellonia

64'🔁 Sub: Mateusz Wdowiak · Borja GalanGKS Katowice

64'🔁 Sub: Marcel Wedrychowski · Eman MarkovićGKS Katowice

63'🔁 Sub: Kajetan·Szmyt · Sergio LozanoJagiellonia

37'🟨 Mateusz·KowalczykGKS Katowice

23'🟨 Pau RestaGKS Katowice

Win probability minute by minute

JagielloniaDrawGKS Katowice

At kick-off38%29%33%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

38%Jagiellonia to win@2.64

29%Draw@3.43

33%GKS Katowice to win@3.03

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score67%

Jagiellonia or draw67%

GKS Katowice or draw62%

Jagiellonia to score82%

GKS Katowice to score80%

Most likely scores

1-112%2-28%2-18%1-27%0-06%

Expected goals per the model: Jagiellonia 1.72 · GKS Katowice 1.61

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.33.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.5 in total · Jagiellonia 4.4 · GKS Katowice 5.1

57%Over 8.5@1.76

46%Over 9.5@2.16

37%Over 10.5@2.73

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.4 · el árbitro Daniel Stefanski saca 5.4 por partido

61%Over 3.5@1.64

44%Over 4.5@2.26

30%Over 5.5@3.36

⏱️ First half

38% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.25

71%Goal in the 1st half@1.40

36%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.81

87%Goal in the 2st half@1.14

⚽ Goals per team

51%Jagiellonia +1.5@1.95

48%GKS Katowice +1.5@2.09

15%Jagiellonia to win to nil@6.78

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.95Expected goals (xG)1.11

6Shots on target2

2Saves6

3Offsides2

22Shots11

8Corners7

0Yellow cards3

9Fouls11

0Red cards0

57Possession %43

Goals in the last 10 matches

Jagiellonia · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

GKS Katowice · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.2goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

JagielloniaGKS Katowice

1.5Goals scored per match1.8

1.4Goals conceded per match1.5

80%Matches with over 1.5 goals82%

65%Matches with over 2.5 goals76%

60%Both teams to score65%

15%Clean sheet6%

25%Matches without scoring29%

3.6Corners won per match4.3

1.5Yellow cards per match1.9

Jagiellonia: 20 matches · GKS Katowice: 17 matches (all competitions with data).

Jagiellonia at home · GKS Katowice away

Jagiellonia at home

6G0E4P

WLWLL

GKS Katowice away

2G0E7P

LWLLW

When do they score and concede?

Jagiellonia · goals by minute in 20 matches scored conceded

GKS Katowice · goals by minute in 17 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Jagiellonia

Scores first in 9 of 20 matches and wins 8 of them.

Concedes first in 11 and avoids defeat in 3.

GKS Katowice

Scores first in 7 of 17 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 10 and avoids defeat in 3.

Players in form

Jagiellonia

Bernardo Vital · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Nik Prelec · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Jesús Imaz · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

GKS Katowice

Bartosz Nowak · 5 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

Ilia Shkurin · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Mateusz·Kowalczyk · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

2Jagiellonia to win

1Draws

2GKS Katowice to win

5 matches · 3.2 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-17	GKS Katowice 2-2 Jagiellonia	Ekstraklasa
2026-03-17	Jagiellonia 2-1 GKS Katowice	Ekstraklasa
2025-12-04	GKS Katowice 3-1 Jagiellonia	Cup
2025-03-02	Jagiellonia 1-0 GKS Katowice	Ekstraklasa
2024-08-25	GKS Katowice 3-1 Jagiellonia	Ekstraklasa

Standings

Ekstraklasa standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	+21	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	+11	31
3	Legia Warszawa	14	+10	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	+5	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	+3	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	+1	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	+4	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	+5	21
9	Jagiellonia	13	0	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	-2	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	-7	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	-7	15
13	Widzew Łódź	14	+1	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	-12	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	-7	12
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	-8	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	-8	10
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	-10	8

More stats

Referee: Daniel Stefanski

5 matches · 5.2 yellows and 0.20 reds per match · 0.20 penalties

Half-time

Jagiellonia: 2 days since last match · GKS Katowice: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 16:20 UTC.