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Italy vs France prediction
International · UEFA Nations League
Italy
FranceProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 14:45 (Peru time) · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza · Referee: Istvan Kovacs
France to score
84%- France scored in 8 of 8 matches this season
- France average 2.0 goals per match
- Olise is on fire: 7 goals in his last 5 matches
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
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Italy and France meet in the UEFA Nations League.
The PickMania model gives Italy a 18% chance of winning, 29% for the draw and 53% for France.
3.0 total goals are expected (1.1 from Italy and 1.9 from France): over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance and both teams to score 60%.
The most likely score is 1-1.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Italy 1.09 · France 1.92
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.01.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.5 in total · Italy 3.8 · France 5.7
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.2 · el árbitro Istvan Kovacs saca 4.5 por partido
⏱️ First half
33% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.99
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Italy: 6 matches · France: 8 matches (all competitions with data).
Italy at home · France away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 4 of 6 matches and wins 4 of them.
Concedes first in 2 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 7 of 8 matches and wins 5 of them.
Concedes first in 1 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
F. Esposito · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
A. Bastoni · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
G. Scamacca · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches
Head to head
5 matches · 3.2 goals per match
| 2026-10-02 | France 1-1 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| 2024-11-17 | Italy 1-3 France | UEFA Nations League |
| 2024-09-06 | France 1-3 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| 2018-06-01 | France 3-1 Italy | Friendlies |
| 2008-06-17 | France 0-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | -9 | 0 |
More stats
14 matches · 4.0 yellows and 0.50 reds per match · 0.50 penalties
Italy: 38 days since last match · France: 38 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC.