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Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka prediction

Croatia · HNL

Istra 1961#4 · 19 ptsWDLWL

3 - 1Full time

HNK Rijeka#6 · 18 ptsDLWLW

29%28%43%

Pre-match probabilities

🟥 Jakov Puljić 27'⚽ Emil Frederiksen 30'⚽ Toni Fruk 39'⚽ Emil Frederiksen 45'🟥 Ante Majstorović 83'⚽ Emil Frederiksen 87'

Saturday, November 7 · 12:00 (Peru time) · Stadion Aldo Drosina · Referee: Ivan Vukancic

🎯 Model pick

HNK Rijeka to score

78%

Full data

HNK Rijeka scored in 14 of 17 matches this season
HNK Rijeka average 1.4 goals per match
Istra 1961 concede 1.5 goals per match

⚡ Summary

43%HNK Rijeka to win@2.31 51%Over 2.5 goals@1.94 56%Both teams to score@1.78 47%Corners +9.5 (9.5)@2.1434%Cards +4.5 (3.8)@2.981-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🔁 Sub: Emil Frederiksen · Dominik CelijaIstra 1961

90'+2🔁 Sub: Rene Hrvatin · Advan KadušićIstra 1961

90'+2🔁 Sub: Dukan Ahmeti · Stipe UkichIstra 1961

90'🟨 Demirel HodzicIstra 1961

87'🔁 Sub: Ante Orec · Mladen DevetakHNK Rijeka

87'⚽ Emil Frederiksen assist Hamza JaganjacIstra 1961

84'❌ Emil Frederiksen (missed pen.)Istra 1961

83'🟥 Ante MajstorovićHNK Rijeka

81'🔁 Sub: D. Adu-Adjei · Mohammad MohebbiHNK Rijeka

81'🔁 Sub: Amer Gojak · Ante Matej JuricHNK Rijeka

81'📺 Ante MajstorovićHNK Rijeka

80'🟨 Vinko RozicIstra 1961

73'🔁 Sub: Nik Skafar Zuzic · Vinko RozicIstra 1961

69'🟨 Raul KumarIstra 1961

61'🟨 Justas LasickasHNK Rijeka

55'🔁 Sub: Tiago Dantas · Ivan CubelicHNK Rijeka

45'+1⚽ Emil Frederiksen assist Nik Skafar ZuzicIstra 1961

39'⚽ Toni Fruk assist Ante MajstorovićHNK Rijeka

30'⚽ Emil FrederiksenIstra 1961

29'🟨 Anel HusicHNK Rijeka

27'🟥 Jakov PuljićHNK Rijeka

27'📺 Jakov PuljićHNK Rijeka

Win probability minute by minute

Istra 1961DrawHNK Rijeka

At kick-off29%28%43%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

29%Istra 1961 to win@3.46

28%Draw@3.60

43%HNK Rijeka to win@2.31

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Istra 1961 or draw57%

HNK Rijeka or draw71%

Istra 1961 to score70%

HNK Rijeka to score78%

Most likely scores

1-113%0-19%1-29%0-08%0-27%

Expected goals per the model: Istra 1961 1.22 · HNK Rijeka 1.54

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.76.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.5 in total · Istra 1961 3.8 · HNK Rijeka 5.8

57%Over 8.5@1.75

47%Over 9.5@2.14

37%Over 10.5@2.71

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.8

50%Over 3.5@1.99

34%Over 4.5@2.98

21%Over 5.5@4.80

⏱️ First half

46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.28

72%Goal in the 1st half@1.38

37%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.73

77%Goal in the 2st half@1.30

⚽ Goals per team

34%Istra 1961 +1.5@2.90

46%HNK Rijeka +1.5@2.20

14%Istra 1961 to win to nil@7.12

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2.43Expected goals (xG)0.87

6Shots on target5

4Saves3

4Offsides1

13Shots14

3Yellow cards2

5Corners7

0Red cards2

12Fouls17

47Possession %53

Goals in the last 10 matches

Istra 1961 · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

HNK Rijeka · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score3.2goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Istra 1961HNK Rijeka

1.8Goals scored per match1.4

1.5Goals conceded per match1.3

83%Matches with over 1.5 goals76%

67%Matches with over 2.5 goals47%

58%Both teams to score59%

25%Clean sheet29%

25%Matches without scoring18%

4.6Corners won per match6.1

2.0Yellow cards per match1.8

Istra 1961: 12 matches · HNK Rijeka: 17 matches (all competitions with data).

Istra 1961 at home · HNK Rijeka away

Istra 1961 at home

2G2E2P

DLWDW

HNK Rijeka away

2G3E4P

LWLDD

When do they score and concede?

Istra 1961 · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

HNK Rijeka · goals by minute in 17 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Istra 1961

Scores first in 4 of 11 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 3.

HNK Rijeka

Scores first in 11 of 16 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Istra 1961

Emil Frederiksen · 1 gol, 3 assists in 5 matches

D. Ahmeti · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

A. Mauric · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

HNK Rijeka

Samuele Vignato · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Toni Fruk · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

D. Adu Adjei · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3Istra 1961 to win

2Draws

5HNK Rijeka to win

10 matches · 1.9 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-08-23	HNK Rijeka 3-2 Istra 1961	HNL
2026-05-17	Istra 1961 0-0 HNK Rijeka	HNL
2026-03-15	HNK Rijeka 0-2 Istra 1961	HNL
2026-01-20	Istra 1961 1-2 HNK Rijeka	HNL
2025-09-27	HNK Rijeka 0-0 Istra 1961	HNL
2025-04-19	Istra 1961 2-0 HNK Rijeka	HNL

Standings

HNL standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	HNK Hajduk Split	13	+16	29
2	Dinamo Zagreb	12	+13	25
3	NK Osijek	13	+4	20
4	Istra 1961	13	+5	19
5	NK Varazdin	13	+3	19
6	HNK Rijeka	12	+1	18
7	NK Slaven Belupo	13	-9	16
8	Rudes	13	-11	16
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	-7	11
10	HNK Gorica	13	-15	7

More stats

Half-time

Istra 1961: 8 days since last match · HNK Rijeka: 6 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 19:30 UTC.