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Ipswich vs Bournemouth prediction

England · Premier League
Ipswich badgeIpswich#14 · 11 ptsDDLWL
1 - 2Full time
Bournemouth badgeBournemouth#7 · 15 ptsWWWWW

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Francisco Evanilson 5'⚽ Leif Davis 46' (p.p.)⚽ Jack Clarke 73' (p)

Sunday, 8 November · 09:00 (Peru time) · Portman Road Stadium · Referee: Simon Hooper

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Bournemouth to score

83%
Partial data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+9🟨 Zian FlemmingIpswich
90'+3🟨 Antonio SilvaBournemouth
85'🔁 Sub: Florentino Luís · Chuba AkpomIpswich
85'🔁 Sub: Francisco Evanilson · Álvaro RodríguezBournemouth
85'🔁 Sub: Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha · Amine AdliBournemouth
79'🔁 Sub: Adam Smith · Bafode DiakiteBournemouth
73'⚽ Jack Clarke (pen.)Ipswich
68'🔁 Sub: Justin Kluivert · Eli KroupiBournemouth
67'🔁 Sub: Ryan Christie · Lewis CookBournemouth
65'🔁 Sub: Daizen Maeda · Abdul Fatawu IssahakuIpswich
54'🔁 Sub: Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Jack ClarkeIpswich
54'🔁 Sub: Emersonn · Zian FlemmingIpswich
46'⚽ Leif Davis (own goal)Bournemouth
43'🟨 Adam SmithBournemouth
43'🟨 Julio EncisoIpswich
43'🟨 Marcus TavernierBournemouth
5'⚽ Francisco EvanilsonBournemouth

Win probability minute by minute

IpswichDrawBournemouth
At kick-off21%30%49%Full time0%0%100%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽⚽⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

21%Ipswich to win@4.80
30%Draw@3.35
49%Bournemouth to win@2.03
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Both teams to score59%
Ipswich or draw51%
Bournemouth or draw79%
Ipswich to score68%
Bournemouth to score83%

Most likely scores

1-114%1-29%0-19%0-28%0-08%

Expected goals per the model: Ipswich 1.13 · Bournemouth 1.78

How many goals will there be?

5%0 goals16%1 goals23%2 goals22%3 goals16%4 goals17%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.91.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.5 in total · Ipswich 3.5 · Bournemouth 5.0

46%Over 8.5@2.19
36%Over 9.5@2.82
27%Over 10.5@3.75
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.2 · el árbitro Simon Hooper saca 3.7 por partido

57%Over 3.5@1.74
41%Over 4.5@2.46
27%Over 5.5@3.75

⏱️ First half

44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.27

72%Goal in the 1st half@1.39
36%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.75
81%Goal in the 2st half@1.24

⚽ Goals per team

31%Ipswich +1.5@3.21
53%Bournemouth +1.5@1.88
9%Ipswich to win to nil@10.62

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.32Expected goals (xG)1.88
2Shots on target4
3Saves1
2Offsides1
10Shots15
2Yellow cards3
2Corners7
6Fouls20
0Red cards0
56Possession %44

Goals in the last 10 matches

Ipswich · last 10 matches
7/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score3.8goals per match
2.5en Manchester United: 2-5 2-5 ambosvs Liverpool: 0-2 0-2 en Crystal Palace: 3-2 3-2 ambosvs Arsenal: 2-4 2-4 ambosen Everton: 0-1 0-1 vs Fulham: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Manchester City: 2-3 2-3 ambosvs Nottingham Forest: 1-1 1-1 ambosen Hull City: 2-2 2-2 ambosvs Bournemouth: 1-2 1-2 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Bournemouth · last 10 matches
7/10+2.5 goals3/10both teams to score3.0goals per match
2.5vs Liverpool: 0-1 0-1 en Chelsea: 1-5 1-5 ambosvs Sturm Graz: 3-0 3-0 vs Sunderland: 2-0 2-0 vs AC Milan: 3-0 3-0 en Manchester United: 3-0 3-0 vs Aston Villa: 3-0 3-0 vs Leeds: 2-0 2-0 en Sparta Praha: 3-1 3-1 ambosat Ipswich: 2-1 2-1 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

IpswichBournemouth
1.7Goals scored per match2.1
2.1Goals conceded per match1.0
91%Matches with over 1.5 goals93%
73%Matches with over 2.5 goals73%
82%Both teams to score47%
0%Clean sheet47%
18%Matches without scoring7%
3.1Corners won per match5.5
2.1Yellow cards per match2.6

Ipswich: 11 matches · Bournemouth: 15 matches (all competitions with data).

Ipswich at home · Bournemouth away

Ipswich at home
3G1E2P
DWLLW
Bournemouth away
3G1E2P
WWLWD

When do they score and concede?

Ipswich · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded
060-155216-302331-450546-604661-758176-90
Bournemouth · goals by minute in 15 matches scored conceded
620-152016-308331-455446-603261-758476-90

The first goal

Ipswich

Scores first in 4 of 11 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 3.

Bournemouth

Scores first in 11 of 15 matches and wins 8 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Ipswich

Abdoul Ouattara · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Julio Enciso · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Florentino Luís · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Bournemouth

Francisco Evanilson · 3 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

Amine Adli · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Justin Kluivert · 1 gol, 2 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

1Ipswich to win
4Draws
1Bournemouth to win

6 matches · 3.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2025-04-02Bournemouth 1-2 IpswichPremier League
2024-12-08Ipswich 1-2 BournemouthPremier League
2015-04-03Ipswich 1-1 BournemouthChampionship
2014-11-22Bournemouth 2-2 IpswichChampionship
2014-04-21Ipswich 2-2 BournemouthChampionship
2013-12-29Bournemouth 1-1 IpswichChampionship

Standings

Premier League standings
#TeamPGDPts
1Arsenal10+1027
2Brighton10+1922
3Manchester City10+821
4Liverpool10+418
5Chelsea10+316
6Everton10+216
7Bournemouth10+215
8Brentford10+514
9Leeds10+214
10Aston Villa10-313
11Tottenham10-112
12Newcastle10-312
13Hull City10011
14Ipswich10-511
15Fulham10-210
16Nottingham Forest10-49
17Coventry10-99
18Manchester United10-58
19Sunderland10-98
20Crystal Palace10-147

More stats

Referee: Simon Hooper

7 matches · 3.3 yellows and 0.33 reds per match · 0.33 penalties

Half-time

Ipswich: 7 days since last match · Bournemouth: 2 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 16:30 UTC.

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