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England vs Croatia prediction
International · UEFA Nations League
England
CroatiaProbabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo
Thursday, November 12 · 14:45 (Peru time) · Wembley Stadium · Referee: Morten Krogh
Over 1.5 goals
85%- 2+ goals in 6 of 8 England matches
- Also in 8 of 8 Croatia matches
- Head to head: 3.3 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
📝 Preview
England and Croatia meet in the UEFA Nations League.
The PickMania model gives England a 78% chance of winning, 15% for the draw and 7% for Croatia.
3.4 total goals are expected (2.7 from England and 0.7 from Croatia): over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance and both teams to score 48%.
The most likely score is 2-0.
Probabilities
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: England 2.70 · Croatia 0.73
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.43.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 8.2 in total · England 5.7 · Croatia 2.5
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.2 · el árbitro Morten Krogh saca 4.3 por partido
⏱️ First half
46% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.57
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
England: 8 matches · Croatia: 8 matches (all competitions with data).
England at home · Croatia away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 6 of 8 matches and wins 5 of them.
Concedes first in 2 and avoids defeat in 0.
Scores first in 3 of 8 matches and wins 2 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
Harry Kane · 6 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Anthony Gordon · 4 goles, 2 assists in 4 matches
Jude Bellingham · 1 gol, 4 assists in 5 matches
Ivan Perišić · 1 gol, 3 assists in 5 matches
Luka Modrić · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Dion Drena Beljo · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches
Head to head
6 matches · 3.3 goals per match
| 2026-10-03 | Croatia 0-7 England | UEFA Nations League |
| 2026-06-17 | England 4-2 Croatia | World Cup |
| 2021-06-13 | England 1-0 Croatia | Euro Championship |
| 2018-11-18 | England 2-1 Croatia | UEFA Nations League |
| 2018-10-12 | Croatia 0-0 England | UEFA Nations League |
| 2018-07-11 | Croatia 2-1 England | World Cup |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 4 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | +11 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 4 | -8 | 0 |
More stats
10 matches · 4.0 yellows and 0.25 reds per match · 1.00 penalties
England: 37 days since last match · Croatia: 37 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC.