Home › Argentina · Liga Profesional › Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra prediction
Argentina · Liga Profesional
Independiente
Deportivo RiestraPre-match probabilities
Friday, November 6 · 17:15 (Peru time) · Libertadores de America · Referee: Juan Pafundi
Independiente to score
73%- Independiente scored in 25 of 32 matches this season
- Deportivo Riestra in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5
- Meza is on fire: 3 goals in his last 4 matches
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Independiente 1.33 · Deportivo Riestra 0.60
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 1.93.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.3 in total · Independiente 4.9 · Deportivo Riestra 4.5
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.6 · el árbitro Juan Pafundi saca 4.0 por partido
⏱️ First half
44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 0.85
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Independiente: 32 matches · Deportivo Riestra: 37 matches (all competitions with data).
Independiente at home · Deportivo Riestra away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 7 of 17 matches and wins 5 of them.
Concedes first in 10 and avoids defeat in 4.
Scores first in 7 of 19 matches and wins 3 of them.
Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 2.
Players in form
Maximiliano Meza · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
N. Banegas · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
S. Montiel · 0 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
J. Randazzo · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
M. Celiz · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
M. Bracamonte · 0 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
5 matches · 1.6 goals per match
| 2026-04-24 | Deportivo Riestra 2-0 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-11-10 | Deportivo Riestra 0-1 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2025-04-28 | Independiente 0-0 Deportivo Riestra | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-10-06 | Independiente 3-1 Deportivo Riestra | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2024-03-15 | Deportivo Riestra 1-0 Independiente | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | +13 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | +6 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | +4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | +4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | +4 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | -8 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | -5 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | -12 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | -7 | 11 |
More stats
15 matches · 3.7 yellows and 0.33 reds per match · 0.00 penalties
Independiente: 4 days since last match · Deportivo Riestra: 6 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 00:50 UTC.