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HNK Gorica vs NK Slaven Belupo prediction

Croatia · HNL

HNK Gorica#10 · 7 ptsLDDLW

3 - 5Full time

NK Slaven Belupo#7 · 16 ptsLWLWD

34%32%34%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Ilija Nestorovski 17'⚽ Stefan Perić 21'⚽ Luka Vrzic 25'⚽ Josip Mitrović 35'⚽ Lovro Banovec 41'⚽ Dušan Stevanović 45'⚽ Ilija Nestorovski 65' (p)🟥 Dominik Kovačić 89'⚽ Mihail Caimacov 90'

Saturday, November 7 · 09:00 (Peru time) · Stadion Radnik · Referee: Patrik Pavlesic

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

75%

Full data

2+ goals in 8 of 12 HNK Gorica matches
Also in 11 of 12 NK Slaven Belupo matches
Head to head: 3.0 goals per match

⚡ Summary

34%NK Slaven Belupo to win@2.91 50%Over 2.5 goals@2.02 58%Both teams to score@1.73 44%Corners +9.5 (9.2)@2.3027%Cards +4.5 (3.4)@3.661-1Most likely score · 15%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+4⚽ Mihail CaimacovNK Slaven Belupo

89'🟥 Dominik KovačićNK Slaven Belupo

84'🔁 Sub: Luka Vrzic · Patrik MijicHNK Gorica

84'🔁 Sub: Antonio Jakir · Itsuki UrataNK Slaven Belupo

82'🔁 Sub: Ljuban Crepulja · Mihail CaimacovNK Slaven Belupo

80'🔁 Sub: Ante Kavelj · Kevin CustovicHNK Gorica

70'🔁 Sub: Stefan Perić · Filip BrautHNK Gorica

70'🔁 Sub: Bruno Bogojević · Bartol KardumHNK Gorica

70'🔁 Sub: Tom Lacoux · Jakov PranjićHNK Gorica

69'🔁 Sub: Marko Dabro · Leon BošnjakNK Slaven Belupo

65'⚽ Ilija Nestorovski (pen.)NK Slaven Belupo

62'📺 Lovro BanovecNK Slaven Belupo

45'+5⚽ Dušan Stevanović assist Ivan CvijanovićHNK Gorica

45'+4🟨 Dominik KovačićNK Slaven Belupo

43'📺 Lovro BanovecNK Slaven Belupo

41'⚽ Lovro BanovecNK Slaven Belupo

35'⚽ Josip Mitrović assist Marko DabroNK Slaven Belupo

32'🟨 Stefan PerićHNK Gorica

27'🟨 Ante KaveljHNK Gorica

25'⚽ Luka VrzicHNK Gorica

21'⚽ Stefan PerićHNK Gorica

17'⚽ Ilija Nestorovski assist Filip KruseljNK Slaven Belupo

Win probability minute by minute

HNK GoricaDrawNK Slaven Belupo

At kick-off34%32%34%Full time0%0%100%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

34%HNK Gorica to win@2.96

32%Draw@3.14

34%NK Slaven Belupo to win@2.91

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score58%

HNK Gorica or draw66%

NK Slaven Belupo or draw66%

HNK Gorica to score74%

NK Slaven Belupo to score74%

Most likely scores

1-115%0-09%0-18%1-08%1-28%

Expected goals per the model: HNK Gorica 1.35 · NK Slaven Belupo 1.36

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.71.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.2 in total · HNK Gorica 4.3 · NK Slaven Belupo 4.9

54%Over 8.5@1.85

44%Over 9.5@2.30

34%Over 10.5@2.94

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.4

43%Over 3.5@2.32

27%Over 4.5@3.66

16%Over 5.5@6.26

⏱️ First half

47% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.28

72%Goal in the 1st half@1.39

37%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.74

76%Goal in the 2st half@1.31

⚽ Goals per team

39%HNK Gorica +1.5@2.56

39%NK Slaven Belupo +1.5@2.54

17%HNK Gorica to win to nil@5.96

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.19Expected goals (xG)3.06

4Shots on target8

3Saves1

1Offsides0

13Shots15

2Yellow cards0

8Corners3

0Red cards1

20Fouls12

57Possession %43

Goals in the last 10 matches

HNK Gorica · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

NK Slaven Belupo · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

HNK GoricaNK Slaven Belupo

0.6Goals scored per match1.2

1.7Goals conceded per match2.1

67%Matches with over 1.5 goals92%

42%Matches with over 2.5 goals67%

42%Both teams to score50%

25%Clean sheet8%

50%Matches without scoring42%

4.1Corners won per match4.0

1.4Yellow cards per match1.8

HNK Gorica: 12 matches · NK Slaven Belupo: 12 matches (all competitions with data).

HNK Gorica at home · NK Slaven Belupo away

HNK Gorica at home

0G3E3P

DLDDL

NK Slaven Belupo away

1G1E4P

WDLLL

When do they score and concede?

HNK Gorica · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

NK Slaven Belupo · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

The first goal

HNK Gorica

Scores first in 3 of 10 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 0.

NK Slaven Belupo

Scores first in 2 of 12 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 10 and avoids defeat in 3.

Players in form

HNK Gorica

J. Pranjic · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

D. Pavicic · 0 goles, 2 assists in 4 matches

B. Bogojevic · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

NK Slaven Belupo

Ilija Nestorovski · 4 goles, 2 assists in 4 matches

Lovro Banovec · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

J. Mersinaj · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

2HNK Gorica to win

1Draws

7NK Slaven Belupo to win

10 matches · 3.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-08-22	NK Slaven Belupo 2-0 HNK Gorica	HNL
2026-05-10	NK Slaven Belupo 1-0 HNK Gorica	HNL
2026-03-07	HNK Gorica 2-2 NK Slaven Belupo	HNL
2025-12-05	NK Slaven Belupo 2-1 HNK Gorica	HNL
2025-09-21	HNK Gorica 2-1 NK Slaven Belupo	HNL
2025-05-18	NK Slaven Belupo 4-0 HNK Gorica	HNL

Standings

HNL standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	HNK Hajduk Split	13	+16	29
2	Dinamo Zagreb	12	+13	25
3	NK Osijek	13	+4	20
4	Istra 1961	13	+5	19
5	NK Varazdin	13	+3	19
6	HNK Rijeka	12	+1	18
7	NK Slaven Belupo	13	-9	16
8	Rudes	13	-11	16
9	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	13	-7	11
10	HNK Gorica	13	-15	7

More stats

Half-time

HNK Gorica: 7 days since last match · NK Slaven Belupo: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 16:30 UTC.