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Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction

Germany · Bundesliga

Hamburger SV#11 · 12 ptsLLWWW

3 - 1Full time

Borussia Mönchengladbach#18 · 4 ptsDWLLL

43%32%25%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Miro Muheim 11'⚽ Robin Hack 44'🟥 Ko Itakura 49'⚽ Shafiq Nandja 59'⚽ Albert Grönbaek 70'

Friday, November 6 · 14:30 (Peru time) · Volksparkstadion · Referee: Sven Jablonski

🎯 Model pick

Hamburger SV to score

80%

Full data

Borussia Mönchengladbach concede 2.8 goals per match
Borussia Mönchengladbach kept a clean sheet in only 1 of 8
Borussia Mönchengladbach in poor form: 3 defeats in their last 5

⚡ Summary

43%Hamburger SV to win@2.32 54%Over 2.5 goals@1.87 60%Both teams to score@1.67 58%Corners +9.5 (10.7)@1.7235%Cards +4.5 (3.9)@2.881-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3🟨 Warmed OmariHamburger SV

90'+2🟨 Jens CastropBorussia Mönchengladbach

89'🔁 Sub: Sebastiaan Bornauw · Jason Bissi-MouelleHamburger SV

81'🔁 Sub: Zento Uno · Jens CastropBorussia Mönchengladbach

81'🔁 Sub: Shuto Machino · Isac LidbergBorussia Mönchengladbach

81'🔁 Sub: Lukas Ullrich · Franck HonoratBorussia Mönchengladbach

80'🔁 Sub: Albert Grönbaek · Yussuf PoulsenHamburger SV

80'🔁 Sub: Albert Sambi Lokonga · Kofi Jeremy AmoakoHamburger SV

70'⚽ Albert GrönbaekHamburger SV

63'🔁 Sub: Shafiq Nandja · Alexander Rossing LelesiitHamburger SV

63'🔁 Sub: Martin Adeline · Terem MoffiHamburger SV

59'⚽ Shafiq Nandja assist Albert GrönbaekHamburger SV

56'🔁 Sub: Robin Hack · Kevin DiksBorussia Mönchengladbach

49'🟥 Ko ItakuraBorussia Mönchengladbach

44'⚽ Robin Hack assist Joe ScallyBorussia Mönchengladbach

38'🟨 Ko ItakuraBorussia Mönchengladbach

11'⚽ Miro Muheim assist Albert Sambi LokongaHamburger SV

Win probability minute by minute

Hamburger SVDrawBorussia Mönchengladbach

At kick-off43%32%25%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

43%Hamburger SV to win@2.32

32%Draw@3.16

25%Borussia Mönchengladbach to win@3.95

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score60%

Hamburger SV or draw75%

Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw57%

Hamburger SV to score80%

Borussia Mönchengladbach to score71%

Most likely scores

1-114%2-18%0-08%1-08%2-27%

Expected goals per the model: Hamburger SV 1.65 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.25

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.90.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.7 in total · Hamburger SV 4.9 · Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.8

68%Over 8.5@1.47

58%Over 9.5@1.72

48%Over 10.5@2.07

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.9 · el árbitro Sven Jablonski saca 2.7 por partido

51%Over 3.5@1.94

35%Over 4.5@2.88

22%Over 5.5@4.60

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.23

71%Goal in the 1st half@1.41

35%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.88

81%Goal in the 2st half@1.23

⚽ Goals per team

49%Hamburger SV +1.5@2.04

36%Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.5@2.81

21%Hamburger SV to win to nil@4.86

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2.36Expected goals (xG)2.47

9Shots on target6

4Saves6

1Offsides1

18Shots19

1Yellow cards1

5Corners3

0Red cards1

6Fouls16

62Possession %38

Goals in the last 10 matches

Hamburger SV · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score3.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Borussia Mönchengladbach · last 10 matches

8/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.9goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Hamburger SVBorussia Mönchengladbach

0.9Goals scored per match1.4

2.4Goals conceded per match2.8

75%Matches with over 1.5 goals88%

63%Matches with over 2.5 goals88%

38%Both teams to score63%

13%Clean sheet13%

50%Matches without scoring38%

4.0Corners won per match5.6

1.8Yellow cards per match3.1

Hamburger SV: 8 matches · Borussia Mönchengladbach: 8 matches (all competitions with data).

Hamburger SV at home · Borussia Mönchengladbach away

Hamburger SV at home

2G0E1P

WWLWL

Borussia Mönchengladbach away

1G0E3P

WLLLL

When do they score and concede?

Hamburger SV · goals by minute in 8 matches scored conceded

Borussia Mönchengladbach · goals by minute in 8 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Hamburger SV

Scores first in 3 of 8 matches and wins 3 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 0.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Scores first in 2 of 7 matches and wins 0 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Hamburger SV

M. Muheim · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

Albert Grönbaek · 0 goles, 3 assists in 4 matches

Y. Poulsen · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Joe Scally · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Wael Mohya · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Shuto Machino · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

4Hamburger SV to win

4Draws

2Borussia Mönchengladbach to win

10 matches · 2.3 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-01-17	Hamburger SV 0-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach	Bundesliga
2025-08-24	Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
2018-05-12	Hamburger SV 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach	Bundesliga
2017-12-15	Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
2017-03-12	Hamburger SV 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach	Bundesliga
2017-03-01	Hamburger SV 1-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach	DFB Pokal

Standings

Bundesliga standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	9	+20	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	+9	21
3	SC Freiburg	9	+10	19
4	RB Leipzig	9	+14	18
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	+3	16
6	Werder Bremen	9	+2	15
7	SV Elversberg	9	-1	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	0	12
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	-1	12
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	-5	12
11	Hamburger SV	9	-10	12
12	FSV Mainz 05	9	-1	10
13	SC Paderborn 07	9	-3	10
14	FC Augsburg	9	0	9
15	1. FC Köln	9	-4	9
16	Unión Berlin	9	-14	7
17	FC Schalke 04	9	-6	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	-13	4

More stats

Referee: Sven Jablonski

29 matches · 2.6 yellows and 0.09 reds per match · 0.09 penalties

Half-time

Hamburger SV: 5 days since last match · Borussia Mönchengladbach: 6 days

Hamburger SV absences

B. Nadir, N. Remberg, F. Vieira, M. Vuskovic, N. Capaldo, Y. Poulsen

Borussia Mönchengladbach absences

H. Bolin, N. Kuhn, E. Leopold, J. Leszczynski, K. Diks, F. Fleck, F. Honorat, T. Kleindienst, M. Nicolas

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 22:00 UTC.