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Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF prediction

Norway · Eliteserien

Ham-Kam#11 · 30 ptsDLLWL

3 - 0Full time

Sarpsborg 08 FF#9 · 31 ptsLWLWL

26%29%44%

Pre-match probabilities

🟥 Claus Babo Niyukuri 35'⚽ Henrik Udahl 76'⚽ Loris Mettler 86'

Sunday, 8 November · 11:00 (Peru time) · Briskeby · Referee: Tore Hansen

🎯 Model pick

Sarpsborg 08 FF to score

82%

Full data

Sarpsborg 08 FF scored in 19 of 25 matches this season
Sarpsborg 08 FF average 1.3 goals per match
Ham-Kam concede 2.1 goals per match

⚡ Summary

44%Sarpsborg 08 FF to win@2.25 58%Over 2.5 goals@1.73 64%Both teams to score@1.57 55%Corners +9.5 (10.4)@1.8227%Cards +4.5 (3.4)@3.761-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'🔁 Sub: Aksel Baran Potur · Blerton IsufiHam-Kam

90'🟨 Olaus Jair SkarsemSarpsborg 08 FF

88'🔁 Sub: Victor Emanuel Halvorsen · Noa WilliamsSarpsborg 08 FF

86'⚽ Loris Mettler assist João Paulo Rodrigues BarrosHam-Kam

83'🟨 Marius LodeSarpsborg 08 FF

81'🔁 Sub: Aimar Sher · Bop GuèyeSarpsborg 08 FF

81'🔁 Sub: Sondre Sorlie · Peter ReinhardsenSarpsborg 08 FF

81'🔁 Sub: Anders Hiim · Andreas HansenSarpsborg 08 FF

76'⚽ Henrik UdahlHam-Kam

73'🔁 Sub: Daniel Seland Karlsbakk · Camil Mmaee NwamebenSarpsborg 08 FF

68'🔁 Sub: Fredrik Sjolstad · Loris MettlerHam-Kam

67'🔁 Sub: David Benjamin · Duarte MoreiraHam-Kam

58'🟨 Daniel Seland KarlsbakkSarpsborg 08 FF

35'🟥 Claus Babo NiyukuriSarpsborg 08 FF

15'🟨 Patrick MetcalfeHam-Kam

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

26%Ham-Kam to win@3.83

29%Draw@3.39

44%Sarpsborg 08 FF to win@2.25

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score64%

Ham-Kam or draw56%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw74%

Ham-Kam to score73%

Sarpsborg 08 FF to score82%

Most likely scores

1-113%1-29%0-17%2-27%0-07%

Expected goals per the model: Ham-Kam 1.33 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.75

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.08.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.4 in total · Ham-Kam 4.7 · Sarpsborg 08 FF 5.7

65%Over 8.5@1.54

55%Over 9.5@1.82

45%Over 10.5@2.22

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.4 · el árbitro Tore Hansen saca 3.9 por partido

42%Over 3.5@2.36

27%Over 4.5@3.76

15%Over 5.5@6.48

⏱️ First half

47% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.45

77%Goal in the 1st half@1.31

43%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.35

80%Goal in the 2st half@1.24

⚽ Goals per team

38%Ham-Kam +1.5@2.61

52%Sarpsborg 08 FF +1.5@1.92

11%Ham-Kam to win to nil@9.13

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2.18Expected goals (xG)1.22

4Shots on target4

4Saves3

4Offsides2

15Shots13

1Yellow cards3

8Corners5

0Red cards1

12Fouls12

58Possession %42

Goals in the last 10 matches

Ham-Kam · last 10 matches

9/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score4.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Sarpsborg 08 FF · last 10 matches

8/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Ham-KamSarpsborg 08 FF

1.4Goals scored per match1.3

2.1Goals conceded per match1.6

92%Matches with over 1.5 goals76%

76%Matches with over 2.5 goals60%

60%Both teams to score64%

16%Clean sheet20%

24%Matches without scoring24%

4.0Corners won per match6.0

1.4Yellow cards per match1.4

Ham-Kam: 25 matches · Sarpsborg 08 FF: 25 matches (all competitions with data).

Ham-Kam at home · Sarpsborg 08 FF away

Ham-Kam at home

5G2E5P

LLLDD

Sarpsborg 08 FF away

3G4E5P

WDDLD

When do they score and concede?

Ham-Kam · goals by minute in 25 matches scored conceded

Sarpsborg 08 FF · goals by minute in 25 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Ham-Kam

Scores first in 7 of 25 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 18 and avoids defeat in 7.

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Scores first in 8 of 23 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 15 and avoids defeat in 6.

Players in form

Ham-Kam

M. Ofkir · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Aksel Baran Potur · 0 goles, 3 assists in 4 matches

Patrick Metcalfe · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Sondre Sorlie · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Daniel Seland Karlsbakk · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

N. Williams · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

1Ham-Kam to win

3Draws

6Sarpsborg 08 FF to win

10 matches · 3.3 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-07-26	Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Ham-Kam	Eliteserien
2026-03-26	Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Ham-Kam	Friendlies Clubs
2026-02-13	Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 Ham-Kam	Friendlies Clubs
2025-08-31	Ham-Kam 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF	Eliteserien
2025-05-11	Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Ham-Kam	Eliteserien
2025-03-07	Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Ham-Kam	Friendlies Clubs

Standings

Eliteserien standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Viking	26	+42	62
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	+40	62
3	Rosenborg	26	+21	46
4	Lillestrom	26	+4	45
5	Molde	26	+20	44
6	Tromso	26	+3	40
7	Brann	26	+3	33
8	Valerenga	26	-4	32
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	-10	31
10	KFUM Oslo	26	-13	31
11	Ham-Kam	26	-15	30
12	Fredrikstad	26	-15	30
13	Sandefjord	26	-8	28
14	Kristiansund BK	26	-21	26
15	Aalesund	26	-15	24
16	Start	26	-32	19

More stats

Referee: Tore Hansen

33 matches · 3.6 yellows and 0.27 reds per match · 0.53 penalties

Half-time

Ham-Kam: 7 days since last match · Sarpsborg 08 FF: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 18:30 UTC.