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Guatemala vs Canadá prediction

International · Nations League Concacaf

GuatemalaWDWLL

21:00Fri Nov 13

CanadaLWWDW

14%21%65%

Probabilidad de cada resultado según el modelo

Friday, 13 November · 21:00 (Peru time)

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

76%

Partial data

Picky expects 2.8 goals (0.8 - 2.0)
Fajardo is on fire: 3 goals in his last 5 matches

⚡ Summary

65%Canadá to win@1.54 52%Over 2.5 goals@1.94 47%Both teams to score@2.13 0-1Most likely score · 12%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

📝 Preview

Guatemala and Canadá meet in the Nations League Concacaf.

The PickMania model gives Guatemala a 14% chance of winning, 21% for the draw and 65% for Canadá.

2.8 total goals are expected (0.8 from Guatemala and 2.0 from Canadá): over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance and both teams to score 47%.

The most likely score is 0-1.

Probabilities

14%Guatemala to win@7.08

21%Draw@4.74

65%Canadá to win@1.54

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score47%

Guatemala or draw35%

Canadá or draw86%

Guatemala to score54%

Canadá to score85%

Most likely scores

0-112%0-212%1-110%1-29%0-38%

Expected goals per the model: Guatemala 0.79 · Canadá 1.97

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.76.

Corners, cards and first half

⚽ Goals per team

19%Guatemala +1.5@5.33

59%Canadá +1.5@1.71

7%Guatemala to win to nil@13.53

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Goals in the last 10 matches

Guatemala · last 8 matches

5/8+2.5 goals2/8both teams to score3.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Canada · last 10 matches

1/10+2.5 goals2/10both teams to score1.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

GuatemalaCanada

2.3Goals scored per match1.0

0.8Goals conceded per match0.0

50%Matches with over 1.5 goals50%

50%Matches with over 2.5 goals0%

25%Both teams to score0%

75%Clean sheet100%

25%Matches without scoring50%

Guatemala: 4 matches · Canadá: 2 matches (all competitions with data).

Guatemala at home · Canadá away

Guatemala at home

2G0E0P

Canadá away

0G0E0P

When do they score and concede?

Guatemala · goals by minute in 4 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Guatemala

Scores first in 3 of 3 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 0 and avoids defeat in 0.

Players in form

Guatemala

W. Fajardo · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

O. Escobar · 0 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

O. Santis · 2 goles, 0 assists in 2 matches

Canada

Jacob Shaffelburg · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches

Tani Oluwaseyi · 0 goles, 2 assists in 4 matches

Jonathan Osorio · 1 gol, 0 assists in 1 matches

Head to head

0Guatemala to win

2Draws

1Canadá to win

3 matches · 1.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-01-18	Canada 1-0 Guatemala	Friendlies
2025-06-29	Canada 1-1 Guatemala	CONCACAF Gold Cup
2023-07-02	Guatemala 0-0 Canada	CONCACAF Gold Cup

More stats

Half-time

Guatemala: 39 days since last match · Canadá: 38 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-11 02:47 UTC.