Home › Poland · Ekstraklasa › Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków

Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków prediction

Poland · Ekstraklasa

Gornik Zabrze#2 · 31 ptsDDDWD

2 - 1Full time

Wieczysta Kraków#18 · 8 ptsLLLLW

63%23%13%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Lucas Piazón 31'⚽ Ondrej Zmrzly 33'⚽ Erik Janža 90'

Saturday, November 7 · 11:30 (Peru time) · Arena Zabrze · Referee: Wojciech Myc

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

83%

Partial data

2+ goals in 14 of 19 Gornik Zabrze matches
Also in 13 of 13 Wieczysta Kraków matches
Picky expects 3.2 goals (2.2 - 1.0)

⚡ Summary

63%Gornik Zabrze to win@1.58 61%Over 2.5 goals@1.65 58%Both teams to score@1.74 54%Corners +9.5 (10.3)@1.8441%Cards +4.5 (4.2)@2.461-1Most likely score · 11%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+1🟨 Erik JanžaGornik Zabrze

90'⚽ Erik JanžaGornik Zabrze

89'🔁 Sub: Tobias Christensen · Bartosz BialekWieczysta Kraków

89'🔁 Sub: Lisandro Semedo · Christophe LungoyiWieczysta Kraków

87'🟨 Petar PusicWieczysta Kraków

83'🔁 Sub: Peter Federico González Carmona · Yvan Ikia DimiGornik Zabrze

79'🟨 Kamil PestkaWieczysta Kraków

79'🔁 Sub: Efthymios Koulouris · Ben LedermanWieczysta Kraków

78'🔁 Sub: Paulo Bernardo · Jarosław KubickiGornik Zabrze

64'🔁 Sub: Villar · Petar PusicWieczysta Kraków

61'🔁 Sub: Kacper Urbanski · Sondre LisethGornik Zabrze

61'🔁 Sub: Erik Prekop · Janis AntisteGornik Zabrze

47'🟨 Malthe HojholtGornik Zabrze

43'🟨 Lisandro SemedoWieczysta Kraków

33'⚽ Ondrej Zmrzly assist Maksym KhlanGornik Zabrze

31'⚽ Lucas Piazón assist Lisandro SemedoWieczysta Kraków

Win probability minute by minute

Gornik ZabrzeDrawWieczysta Kraków

At kick-off63%23%13%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

63%Gornik Zabrze to win@1.58

23%Draw@4.29

13%Wieczysta Kraków to win@7.42

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score58%

Gornik Zabrze or draw87%

Wieczysta Kraków or draw37%

Gornik Zabrze to score88%

Wieczysta Kraków to score62%

Most likely scores

1-111%2-010%2-19%1-08%3-07%

Expected goals per the model: Gornik Zabrze 2.22 · Wieczysta Kraków 0.99

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.21.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.3 in total · Gornik Zabrze 5.4 · Wieczysta Kraków 4.9

64%Over 8.5@1.55

54%Over 9.5@1.84

44%Over 10.5@2.25

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.2 · el árbitro Wojciech Myc saca 4.3 por partido

57%Over 3.5@1.74

41%Over 4.5@2.46

27%Over 5.5@3.75

⏱️ First half

36% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.15

68%Goal in the 1st half@1.46

32%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.12

87%Goal in the 2st half@1.15

⚽ Goals per team

65%Gornik Zabrze +1.5@1.54

26%Wieczysta Kraków +1.5@3.84

32%Gornik Zabrze to win to nil@3.16

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

3.06Expected goals (xG)0.45

11Shots on target4

3Saves9

25Shots7

2Yellow cards3

3Corners5

0Red cards0

8Fouls11

57Possession %43

Goals in the last 10 matches

Gornik Zabrze · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.0goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Wieczysta Kraków · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Gornik ZabrzeWieczysta Kraków

1.4Goals scored per match1.3

1.2Goals conceded per match2.0

74%Matches with over 1.5 goals100%

47%Matches with over 2.5 goals69%

68%Both teams to score69%

21%Clean sheet8%

21%Matches without scoring23%

5.6Corners won per match5.7

2.1Yellow cards per match1.9

Gornik Zabrze: 19 matches · Wieczysta Kraków: 13 matches (all competitions with data).

Gornik Zabrze at home · Wieczysta Kraków away

Gornik Zabrze at home

3G4E2P

DDWLL

Wieczysta Kraków away

1G1E6P

LLDLL

When do they score and concede?

Gornik Zabrze · goals by minute in 19 matches scored conceded

Wieczysta Kraków · goals by minute in 13 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Gornik Zabrze

Scores first in 8 of 17 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 4.

Wieczysta Kraków

Scores first in 4 of 13 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 2.

Players in form

Gornik Zabrze

Kacper Urbanski · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

S. Liseth · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

R. Janicki · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Wieczysta Kraków

L. Semedo · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

L. Piazon · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

B. Bialek · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Standings

Ekstraklasa standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	13	+21	32
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	+11	31
3	Legia Warszawa	14	+10	24
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	+5	24
5	Wisla Krakow	14	+3	24
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	+1	23
7	Piast Gliwice	14	+4	22
8	GKS Katowice	14	+5	21
9	Jagiellonia	13	0	21
10	Motor Lublin	14	-2	19
11	Korona Kielce	14	-7	18
12	Wisla Plock	13	-7	15
13	Widzew Łódź	14	+1	14
14	Radomiak Radom	14	-12	14
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	-7	12
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	-8	12
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	-8	10
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	-10	8

More stats

Referee: Wojciech Myc

15 matches · 4.1 yellows and 0.14 reds per match · 0.14 penalties

Half-time

Gornik Zabrze: 7 days since last match · Wieczysta Kraków: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 19:00 UTC.