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Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia prediction

Argentina · Liga Profesional

Gimnasia M.#17 · 41 ptsDLLWL

1 - 1Full time

Independ. Rivadavia#4 · 57 ptsWLDLD

32%38%29%

Pre-match probabilities

🟥 Jose Ignacio Florentin 17'⚽ Germán Guiffrey 45'🟥 Luciano César Cingolani 84'⚽ Luis Ángel Díaz Cuesta 90'

Saturday, November 7 · 13:00 (Peru time) · Víctor Legrotaglie · Referee: Facundo Tello

🎯 Model pick

Gimnasia M. or draw

71%

Full data

At home, Gimnasia M. are 8W 3D 4L this season
Módica is on fire: 2 goals in his last 5 matches

⚡ Summary

38%Draw@2.61 39%Over 2.5 goals@2.58 49%Both teams to score@2.03 46%Corners +9.5 (9.5)@2.1878%Cards +4.5 (6.9)@1.291-1Most likely score · 17%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+5⚽ Luis Ángel Díaz CuestaIndepend. Rivadavia

90'+2🔁 Sub: Agustín Módica · Nicolás RomanoGimnasia M.

90'🔁 Sub: Facundo Lencioni · Juan FrancoGimnasia M.

89'🟨 Tomás O'ConnorGimnasia M.

84'🟥 Luciano César CingolaniGimnasia M.

81'🔁 Sub: Fabrizio Sartori Prieto · Stefano MoreyraIndepend. Rivadavia

81'🔁 Sub: Leonel Bucca · Luis Ángel Díaz CuestaIndepend. Rivadavia

79'🔁 Sub: Esteban Fernández · Matías VargasGimnasia M.

72'🔁 Sub: Alex Vigo · Matías RealiIndepend. Rivadavia

72'🔁 Sub: Tomas Bottari · Luis SequeiraIndepend. Rivadavia

62'🟨 Alex ArceIndepend. Rivadavia

61'🟨 Luciano César CingolaniGimnasia M.

59'🟨 Luciano ParedesGimnasia M.

56'🔁 Sub: Gonzalo Rios · Matías FernándezIndepend. Rivadavia

45'+5🟨 Cesar RigamontiGimnasia M.

45'+1📺 Luciano ParedesGimnasia M.

45'🔁 Sub: Fermin Antonini · Tomás O'ConnorGimnasia M.

45'🔁 Sub: Germán Guiffrey · Luciano César CingolaniGimnasia M.

45'⚽ Germán Guiffrey assist Facundo LencioniGimnasia M.

21'🟨 Fermin AntoniniGimnasia M.

21'🟨 Matías FernándezIndepend. Rivadavia

20'🟨 Emmanuel Gómez RigaIndepend. Rivadavia

17'🟥 Jose Ignacio FlorentinIndepend. Rivadavia

Win probability minute by minute

Gimnasia M.DrawIndepend. Rivadavia

At kick-off32%38%29%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

32%Gimnasia M. to win@3.08

38%Draw@2.61

29%Independ. Rivadavia to win@3.42

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score49%

Gimnasia M. or draw71%

Independ. Rivadavia or draw68%

Gimnasia M. to score69%

Independ. Rivadavia to score67%

Most likely scores

1-117%0-014%1-09%0-19%2-17%

Expected goals per the model: Gimnasia M. 1.17 · Independ. Rivadavia 1.11

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.28.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.5 in total · Gimnasia M. 4.5 · Independ. Rivadavia 5.0

56%Over 8.5@1.78

46%Over 9.5@2.18

36%Over 10.5@2.76

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 6.9 · el árbitro Facundo Tello saca 9.0 por partido

88%Over 3.5@1.14

78%Over 4.5@1.29

65%Over 5.5@1.53

⏱️ First half

44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.00

63%Goal in the 1st half@1.58

26%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.78

72%Goal in the 2st half@1.39

⚽ Goals per team

33%Gimnasia M. +1.5@3.06

30%Independ. Rivadavia +1.5@3.28

19%Gimnasia M. to win to nil@5.30

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

0.52Expected goals (xG)0.34

5Shots on target4

3Saves4

1Offsides3

1Red cards1

10Shots12

4Yellow cards3

3Corners3

17Fouls10

59Possession %41

Goals in the last 10 matches

Gimnasia M. · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.1goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Independ. Rivadavia · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.2goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Gimnasia M.Independ. Rivadavia

1.0Goals scored per match1.6

1.2Goals conceded per match1.2

58%Matches with over 1.5 goals78%

39%Matches with over 2.5 goals55%

42%Both teams to score68%

29%Clean sheet23%

35%Matches without scoring20%

4.0Corners won per match4.3

2.3Yellow cards per match2.3

Gimnasia M.: 31 matches · Independ. Rivadavia: 40 matches (all competitions with data).

Gimnasia M. at home · Independ. Rivadavia away

Gimnasia M. at home

8G3E4P

LWDDW

Independ. Rivadavia away

8G6E5P

LLWLD

When do they score and concede?

Gimnasia M. · goals by minute in 19 matches scored conceded

Independ. Rivadavia · goals by minute in 27 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Gimnasia M.

Scores first in 9 of 18 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 4.

Independ. Rivadavia

Scores first in 11 of 23 matches and wins 8 of them.

Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 6.

Players in form

Gimnasia M.

Agustín Módica · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

M. Vargas · 0 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Independ. Rivadavia

Jose Ignacio Florentin · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Juan Elordi · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

M. Fernandez · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3Gimnasia M. to win

0Draws

4Independ. Rivadavia to win

7 matches · 3.1 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-04-26	Independ. Rivadavia 5-1 Gimnasia M.	Liga Profesional Argentina
2022-10-22	Gimnasia M. 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia	Primera Nacional
2022-07-03	Gimnasia M. 2-0 Independ. Rivadavia	Primera Nacional
2022-02-24	Independ. Rivadavia 2-0 Gimnasia M.	Copa Argentina
2018-09-30	Gimnasia M. 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia	Primera Nacional
2015-08-11	Independ. Rivadavia 4-2 Gimnasia M.	Primera Nacional

Standings

Liga Profesional standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Boca Juniors	32	+23	63
2	Rosario Central	32	+18	62
3	Argentinos JRS	32	+10	60
4	Independ. Rivadavia	32	+11	57
5	Gimnasia L.P.	32	+5	57
6	Vélez Sarsfield	32	+14	56
7	River Plate	32	+17	55
8	Instituto Córdoba	32	+11	55
9	Lanus	32	+10	50
10	Belgrano Córdoba	32	+6	49
11	Estudiantes L.P.	32	+11	47
12	Barracas Central	32	+4	47
13	Independiente	32	+3	47
14	Defensa Y Justicia	32	+3	47
15	Huracan	32	+2	44
16	Unión Santa Fe	32	+4	42
17	Gimnasia M.	32	-7	41
18	San Lorenzo	32	-7	41
19	Sarmiento Junín	32	-8	40
20	Tigre	32	+3	39
21	Talleres Córdoba	32	-2	39
22	Newells Old Boys	32	-9	38
23	Racing Club	32	-6	36
24	Platense	32	-7	36
25	Banfield	32	-9	33
26	Atlético Tucumán	32	-6	32
27	Central Córdoba de Santiago	32	-24	27
28	Deportivo Riestra	32	-15	23
29	Aldosivi	32	-23	19
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	32	-32	14

More stats

Referee: Facundo Tello

7 matches · 9.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

Gimnasia M.: 5 days since last match · Independ. Rivadavia: 4 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 20:30 UTC.