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Gent vs Kortrijk prediction

Belgium · Jupiler Pro League
Gent badgeGent#3 · 28 ptsDLWLW
1 - 0Full time
Kortrijk badgeKortrijk#18 · 4 ptsLDLWL

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ A. Kadri 32'

Sunday, November 8 · 10:00 (Peru time) · Planet Group Arena · Referee: Jan Boterberg

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

79%
Partial data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

89'🔁 Sub: H. Murray-Campbell · R. StormanKortrijk
88'🟨 A. DrouhinKortrijk
86'❌ T. Ambrose (missed pen.)Kortrijk
80'🟨 B. DejaegereKortrijk
79'🔁 Sub: G. Koyalipou · J. van LandschootKortrijk
79'🔁 Sub: M. Sonko · L. LopesGent
79'🔁 Sub: J. Vergara · I. CisseGent
70'🔁 Sub: B. Lambert · S. OgbuehiKortrijk
66'🔁 Sub: T. Araujo · A. AyindeGent
65'🔁 Sub: H. Goore · G. De MeyerGent
46'🔁 Sub: A. Phillips · B. DejaegereKortrijk
46'🔁 Sub: A. Kadri · M. DeanGent
46'🔁 Sub: S. Campbell · K. MasuiKortrijk
32'⚽ A. Kadri assist T. AraujoGent
13'🟨 S. Van Der HeydenGent

Win probability minute by minute

GentDrawKortrijk
At kick-off66%21%13%Full time100%0%0%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

66%Gent to win@1.52
21%Draw@4.76
13%Kortrijk to win@7.64
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Both teams to score52%
Gent or draw87%
Kortrijk or draw34%
Gent to score87%
Kortrijk to score56%

Most likely scores

2-012%1-011%1-110%2-19%3-08%

Expected goals per the model: Gent 2.11 · Kortrijk 0.83

How many goals will there be?

5%0 goals16%1 goals23%2 goals22%3 goals16%4 goals17%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.94.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.1 in total · Gent 5.5 · Kortrijk 3.6

52%Over 8.5@1.91
42%Over 9.5@2.38
33%Over 10.5@3.07
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.3 · el árbitro J. Boterberg saca 4.2 por partido

59%Over 3.5@1.69
42%Over 4.5@2.37
28%Over 5.5@3.57

⏱️ First half

41% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.22

70%Goal in the 1st half@1.42
34%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.91
82%Goal in the 2st half@1.22

⚽ Goals per team

62%Gent +1.5@1.61
20%Kortrijk +1.5@4.95
37%Gent to win to nil@2.68

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

4Shots on target6
10Shots10
7Fouls19
3Corners1
3Offsides0
51Possession %49
1Yellow cards1
6Saves3
1.38Expected goals (xG)0.47

Goals in the last 10 matches

Gent · last 10 matches
3/10+2.5 goals2/10both teams to score2.0goals per match
2.5en Cercle Brugge: 3-0 3-0 en Genk: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Standard Liege: 2-1 2-1 ambosen Zulte Waregem: 2-0 2-0 vs Aarhus: 1-0 1-0 en SC Braga: 0-2 0-2 vs Anderlecht: 4-0 4-0 en Lommel United: 0-2 0-2 en KuPS: 0-0 0-0 vs Kortrijk: 1-0 1-0

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Kortrijk · last 10 matches
5/10+2.5 goals3/10both teams to score2.4goals per match
2.5vs Antwerp: 0-3 0-3 vs Charleroi: 1-3 1-3 ambosen Anderlecht: 0-1 0-1 vs Zulte Waregem: 0-2 0-2 en RAAL La Louvière: 0-3 0-3 vs SK Beveren: 1-0 1-0 en Genk: 0-3 0-3 en Standard Liege: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs KV Mechelen: 1-3 1-3 ambosat Gent: 0-1 0-1

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

GentKortrijk
1.3Goals scored per match0.4
0.6Goals conceded per match2.2
63%Matches with over 1.5 goals80%
32%Matches with over 2.5 goals60%
32%Both teams to score30%
58%Clean sheet10%
32%Matches without scoring60%
5.1Corners won per match3.4
1.6Yellow cards per match2.3

Gent: 19 matches · Kortrijk: 10 matches (all competitions with data).

Gent at home · Kortrijk away

Gent at home
6G3E0P
WWWWW
Kortrijk away
0G1E4P
DLLLL

When do they score and concede?

Gent · goals by minute in 19 matches scored conceded
320-153016-306231-452246-601061-7510576-90
Kortrijk · goals by minute in 10 matches scored conceded
030-150116-302431-452046-600861-750676-90

The first goal

Gent

Scores first in 12 of 15 matches and wins 10 of them.

Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 1.

Kortrijk

Scores first in 3 of 10 matches and wins 1 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 0.

Players in form

Gent

T. Araujo · 0 goles, 4 assists in 5 matches

A. Kadri · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

I. Cisse · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

Kortrijk

J. Roche · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

T. Ambrose · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

G. Koyalipou · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

5Gent to win
1Draws
4Kortrijk to win

10 matches · 2.8 goals per match

Recent meetings
2025-03-16Gent 1-2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
2024-07-28Kortrijk 0-1 GentJupiler Pro League
2023-12-26Kortrijk 0-2 GentJupiler Pro League
2023-07-30Gent 3-2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
2023-01-15Gent 2-1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
2022-11-13Kortrijk 0-4 GentJupiler Pro League

Standings

Jupiler Pro League standings
#TeamPGDPts
1Unión St. Gilloise11+2329
2Club Brugge KV11+1828
3Gent11+1428
4Charleroi11+1327
5Anderlecht11+220
6Lommel United11+216
7Genk11+315
8Standard Liege11+215
9KVC Westerlo11-414
10OH Leuven11-512
11KV Mechelen11-712
12St. Truiden11011
13Antwerp11-611
14Zulte Waregem11-711
15SK Beveren11-1010
16Cercle Brugge11-89
17RAAL La Louvière11-117
18Kortrijk11-194

More stats

Referee: J. Boterberg

20 matches · 3.9 yellows and 0.36 reds per match · 0.14 penalties

Half-time

Gent: 2 days since last match · Kortrijk: 3 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 17:30 UTC.

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