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Genoa vs AC Milan prediction
Italy · Serie A
Genoa
AC MilanPre-match probabilities
Sunday, 8 November · 09:00 (Peru time) · Luigi Ferraris · Referee: Davide Massa
AC Milan or draw
80%- Away, AC Milan are 3W 3D 1L this season
- #4 in the table, Genoa #13
- Head to head: 7W 3D 0L for AC Milan
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: Genoa 0.90 · AC Milan 1.49
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.39.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 8.8 in total · Genoa 4.5 · AC Milan 4.3
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.6 · el árbitro Davide Massa saca 3.3 por partido
⏱️ First half
50% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.21
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
Genoa: 12 matches · AC Milan: 14 matches (all competitions with data).
Genoa at home · AC Milan away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 6 of 12 matches and wins 5 of them.
Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 2.
Scores first in 9 of 14 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 1.
Players in form
Milutin Osmajić · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Junior Messias · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Tommaso Baldanzi · 1 gol, 1 assists in 1 matches
Diego Moreira · 1 gol, 2 assists in 3 matches
Christian Pulisic · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Alphadjo Cissè · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 2.7 goals per match
| 2026-05-17 | Genoa 1-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2026-01-08 | AC Milan 1-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| 2025-05-05 | Genoa 1-2 AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2024-12-15 | AC Milan 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| 2024-05-05 | AC Milan 3-3 Genoa | Serie A |
| 2023-10-07 | Genoa 0-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 11 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 | Inter | 11 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 | Como | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 11 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 | Torino | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Lecce | 11 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 | Parma | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza | 11 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | -13 | 5 |
More stats
24 matches · 3.1 yellows and 0.15 reds per match · 0.31 penalties
Genoa: 6 days since last match · AC Milan: 2 days
L. Venturino
Sin bajas conocidas
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 16:30 UTC.