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FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München prediction
Germany · Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
Bayern MünchenPre-match probabilities
Saturday, November 7 · 09:30 (Peru time) · MEWA Arena · Referee: Robert Schroder
Over 2.5 goals
78%- 3+ goals in 6 of 8 FSV Mainz 05 matches
- Also in 10 of 12 Bayern München matches
- Head to head: 5.0 goals per match
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: FSV Mainz 05 1.21 · Bayern München 3.08
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 4.29.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 10.9 in total · FSV Mainz 05 4.6 · Bayern München 6.3
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 3.8
⏱️ First half
42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.80
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
FSV Mainz 05: 8 matches · Bayern München: 12 matches (all competitions with data).
FSV Mainz 05 at home · Bayern München away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 2 of 7 matches and wins 2 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 1.
Scores first in 8 of 11 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
Anthony Caci · 3 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches
Sheraldo Becker · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches
Benedict Hollerbach · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
Harry Kane · 2 goles, 5 assists in 5 matches
L. Diaz · 3 goles, 1 assists in 2 matches
Michael Olise · 2 goles, 2 assists in 4 matches
Head to head
10 matches · 5.0 goals per match
| 2026-04-25 | FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-14 | Bayern München 2-2 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-26 | Bayern München 3-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-14 | FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern München | Bundesliga |
| 2024-10-30 | FSV Mainz 05 0-4 Bayern München | DFB Pokal |
| 2024-03-09 | Bayern München 8-1 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | +9 | 21 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 9 | +14 | 18 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Unión Berlin | 9 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 9 | -13 | 4 |
More stats
FSV Mainz 05: 7 days since last match · Bayern München: 3 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 17:00 UTC.