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Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar prediction

Netherlands · Eredivisie
Fortuna Sittard badgeFortuna Sittard#7 · 20 ptsDWDDW
2 - 2Full time
Telstar badgeTelstar#16 · 10 ptsWLLDL

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Mohammed Ihattaren 15' (p)⚽ Sem valk 43' (p.p.)⚽ Abdelnour Soualhia 45'⚽ Patrick Brouwer 45'

Saturday, November 7 · 10:30 (Peru time) · Fortuna Sittard Stadion · Referee: Dennis Higler

Picky
🎯 Model pick

Fortuna Sittard to score

82%
Full data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+4🔁 Sub: Jasper Dahlhaus · Nick de GrootFortuna Sittard
90'+4🔁 Sub: Shiloh 't Zand · Siebe WylinFortuna Sittard
88'🔁 Sub: Tyrone Owusu · Harrie KusterTelstar
88'🔁 Sub: Isaiah Ahmed · Noach ShenkmanTelstar
81'🔁 Sub: Nökkvi Þeyr Þórisson · Jelani SeedorfTelstar
73'🟨 Sven SimonsFortuna Sittard
73'🔁 Sub: Kristoffer Peterson · Yassin OukiliFortuna Sittard
72'🟨 Isaiah AhmedTelstar
66'🔁 Sub: Patrick Brouwer · Emirhan DemircanTelstar
66'🔁 Sub: Gabi Caschili · Rojendro OudstenTelstar
66'🔁 Sub: Iván Márquez · Sven SimonsFortuna Sittard
45'+2⚽ Patrick BrouwerTelstar
45'⚽ Abdelnour Soualhia assist Patrick BrouwerTelstar
43'⚽ Sem valk (own goal)Fortuna Sittard
40'🟨 Tyrone OwusuTelstar
32'🟨 Marvin PeersmanTelstar
25'🟨 Iván MárquezFortuna Sittard
15'⚽ Mohammed Ihattaren (pen.)Fortuna Sittard

Win probability minute by minute

Fortuna SittardDrawTelstar
At kick-off47%30%23%Full time0%100%0%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽⚽⚽⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

47%Fortuna Sittard to win@2.11
30%Draw@3.37
23%Telstar to win@4.35
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams to score61%
Fortuna Sittard or draw77%
Telstar or draw53%
Fortuna Sittard to score82%
Telstar to score70%

Most likely scores

1-113%2-19%1-08%0-08%2-07%

Expected goals per the model: Fortuna Sittard 1.76 · Telstar 1.20

How many goals will there be?

5%0 goals15%1 goals23%2 goals22%3 goals17%4 goals18%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.96.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.5 in total · Fortuna Sittard 4.3 · Telstar 6.1

66%Over 8.5@1.52
56%Over 9.5@1.79
46%Over 10.5@2.18
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 2.9

33%Over 3.5@3.01
19%Over 4.5@5.21
10%Over 5.5@9.73

⏱️ First half

45% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.33

74%Goal in the 1st half@1.36
39%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.59
80%Goal in the 2st half@1.25

⚽ Goals per team

53%Fortuna Sittard +1.5@1.90
34%Telstar +1.5@2.96
23%Fortuna Sittard to win to nil@4.41

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

4Shots on target8
6Saves2
3Offsides3
10Shots14
2Yellow cards3
4Corners4
17Fouls14
0Red cards0
47Possession %53
1.98Expected goals (xG)0.71

Goals in the last 10 matches

Fortuna Sittard · last 10 matches
5/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score3.2goals per match
2.5vs AZ Alkmaar: 0-2 0-2 en Groningen: 3-2 3-2 ambosen ADO Den Haag: 3-2 3-2 ambosvs Ajax: 1-5 1-5 ambosen Willem II: 1-0 1-0 vs Twente: 1-1 1-1 ambosen NEC Nijmegen: 2-2 2-2 ambosvs Excelsior: 1-0 1-0 en Feyenoord: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs Telstar: 2-2 2-2 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Telstar · last 10 matches
7/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.6goals per match
2.5vs Ajax: 0-4 0-4 vs Cambuur: 2-2 2-2 ambosen Twente: 0-1 0-1 en Heerenveen: 0-0 0-0 en AZ Alkmaar: 0-1 0-1 vs ADO Den Haag: 2-2 2-2 ambosvs Feyenoord: 3-4 3-4 ambosen GO Ahead Eagles: 2-3 2-3 ambosvs Utrecht: 4-2 4-2 ambosat Fortuna Sittard: 2-2 2-2 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

Fortuna SittardTelstar
1.6Goals scored per match1.4
1.6Goals conceded per match2.1
82%Matches with over 1.5 goals73%
55%Matches with over 2.5 goals73%
73%Both teams to score64%
18%Clean sheet9%
9%Matches without scoring36%
2.5Corners won per match4.5
1.4Yellow cards per match1.3

Fortuna Sittard: 11 matches · Telstar: 11 matches (all competitions with data).

Fortuna Sittard at home · Telstar away

Fortuna Sittard at home
2G1E2P
WDLLW
Telstar away
1G1E3P
LLDLW

When do they score and concede?

Fortuna Sittard · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded
400-153316-302231-452446-602361-755676-90
Telstar · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded
330-153416-303431-452746-602261-753376-90

The first goal

Fortuna Sittard

Scores first in 8 of 11 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 1.

Telstar

Scores first in 3 of 10 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Fortuna Sittard

A. Descotte · 3 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

Shiloh 't Zand · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

R. Guth · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Telstar

Tyrone Owusu · 5 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Noach Shenkman · 1 gol, 2 assists in 4 matches

Nökkvi Þeyr Þórisson · 1 gol, 1 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

2Fortuna Sittard to win
3Draws
1Telstar to win

6 matches · 3.5 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-03-08Fortuna Sittard 1-4 TelstarEredivisie
2025-09-14Telstar 1-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
2018-02-16Fortuna Sittard 1-1 TelstarEerste Divisie
2017-09-29Telstar 0-6 Fortuna SittardEerste Divisie
2017-01-20Fortuna Sittard 1-1 TelstarEerste Divisie
2016-08-12Telstar 1-1 Fortuna SittardEerste Divisie

Standings

Eredivisie standings
#TeamPGDPts
1PSV Eindhoven12+2526
2Feyenoord12+1925
3Ajax12+1725
4Twente12+1824
5AZ Alkmaar12+823
6Heerenveen12+821
7Fortuna Sittard12020
8GO Ahead Eagles12-317
9Groningen12+115
10Cambuur12-215
11NEC Nijmegen12-114
12Sparta Rotterdam12-812
13PEC Zwolle12-1112
14Utrecht12-1312
15Excelsior12-1311
16Telstar12-710
17ADO Den Haag12-99
18Willem II12-293

More stats

Half-time

Fortuna Sittard: 7 days since last match · Telstar: 6 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 18:00 UTC.

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