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Fiorentina vs Juventus prediction

Italy · Serie A

Fiorentina#15 · 9 ptsWDLLL

2 - 2Full time

Juventus#7 · 18 ptsWWLWD

30%30%40%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Mateo Pellegrino 4'⚽ Nick Woltemade 32'⚽ Alieu Njie 54'⚽ Gleison Bremer 66'

Sunday, November 8 · 14:45 (Peru time) · Stadio Artemio Franchi · Referee: Andrea Colombo

🎯 Model pick

Juventus to score

76%

Full data

Juventus scored in 12 of 14 matches this season
Juventus average 1.7 goals per match
Fiorentina concede 2.0 goals per match

⚡ Summary

40%Juventus to win@2.47 50%Over 2.5 goals@2.02 56%Both teams to score@1.77 46%Corners +9.5 (9.5)@2.1834%Cards +4.5 (3.9)@2.901-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

89'🔁 Sub: Jhon Lucumi · Federico GattiJuventus

86'🔁 Sub: Mateo Pellegrino · BetoFiorentina

86'🔁 Sub: Alieu Njie · Wilfried GnontoFiorentina

78'🔁 Sub: Weston McKennie · Jeff EkhatorJuventus

73'🟨 Randal Kolo MuaniJuventus

66'⚽ Gleison Bremer assist Douglas Luiz SoaresJuventus

65'🔁 Sub: Pedro Goncalves · Marco BrescianiniFiorentina

65'🔁 Sub: Christ Inao Oulaï · Nicolo FagioliFiorentina

57'🔁 Sub: Nick Woltemade · Edon ZhegrovaJuventus

57'🔁 Sub: Jérémie Boga · Kerim AlajbegovicJuventus

56'🔁 Sub: Juan Cabal · Zeki ÇelikJuventus

54'⚽ Alieu NjieFiorentina

50'🟨 Christ Inao OulaïFiorentina

32'⚽ Nick Woltemade assist Randal Kolo MuaniJuventus

22'🟨 Gleison BremerJuventus

13'🟨 Juan CabalJuventus

4'⚽ Mateo Pellegrino assist Pedro GoncalvesFiorentina

Win probability minute by minute

FiorentinaDrawJuventus

At kick-off30%30%40%Full time0%100%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

30%Fiorentina to win@3.34

30%Draw@3.37

40%Juventus to win@2.47

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score56%

Fiorentina or draw60%

Juventus or draw70%

Fiorentina to score70%

Juventus to score76%

Most likely scores

1-114%0-19%0-09%1-28%1-07%

Expected goals per the model: Fiorentina 1.23 · Juventus 1.46

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.69.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 9.5 in total · Fiorentina 4.1 · Juventus 5.4

56%Over 8.5@1.78

46%Over 9.5@2.18

36%Over 10.5@2.77

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 3.8 · el árbitro Andrea Colombo saca 4.1 por partido

51%Over 3.5@1.96

34%Over 4.5@2.90

21%Over 5.5@4.65

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.13

68%Goal in the 1st half@1.48

31%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@3.21

79%Goal in the 2st half@1.27

⚽ Goals per team

35%Fiorentina +1.5@2.87

43%Juventus +1.5@2.33

15%Fiorentina to win to nil@6.70

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2.03Expected goals (xG)2.46

6Shots on target6

4Saves4

22Shots18

1Yellow cards3

5Corners12

0Offsides1

16Fouls18

0Red cards0

41Possession %59

Goals in the last 10 matches

Fiorentina · last 10 matches

9/10+2.5 goals9/10both teams to score3.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Juventus · last 10 matches

5/10+2.5 goals5/10both teams to score2.7goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

FiorentinaJuventus

1.8Goals scored per match1.7

2.0Goals conceded per match1.0

100%Matches with over 1.5 goals93%

92%Matches with over 2.5 goals43%

75%Both teams to score43%

8%Clean sheet43%

17%Matches without scoring14%

4.7Corners won per match7.0

2.2Yellow cards per match1.4

Fiorentina: 12 matches · Juventus: 14 matches (all competitions with data).

Fiorentina at home · Juventus away

Fiorentina at home

2G2E3P

DLDWL

Juventus away

4G1E2P

WLWWD

When do they score and concede?

Fiorentina · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

Juventus · goals by minute in 14 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Fiorentina

Scores first in 4 of 12 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 8 and avoids defeat in 4.

Juventus

Scores first in 8 of 14 matches and wins 7 of them.

Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 3.

Players in form

Fiorentina

Alieu Njie · 2 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches

Álex Jiménez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

M. Pongracic · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

Juventus

Nick Woltemade · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

Randal Kolo Muani · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Douglas Luiz · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

3Fiorentina to win

3Draws

4Juventus to win

10 matches · 2.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-17	Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina	Serie A
2025-11-22	Fiorentina 1-1 Juventus	Serie A
2025-03-16	Fiorentina 3-0 Juventus	Serie A
2024-12-29	Juventus 2-2 Fiorentina	Serie A
2024-04-07	Juventus 1-0 Fiorentina	Serie A
2023-11-05	Fiorentina 0-1 Juventus	Serie A

Standings

Serie A standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Lazio	11	+16	29
2	Inter	11	+15	28
3	AS Roma	11	+21	27
4	AC Milan	11	+10	24
5	Como	11	+8	23
6	Frosinone	11	+9	20
7	Juventus	11	+3	18
8	Bologna	11	+2	17
9	Cagliari	11	-5	16
10	Napoli	11	+4	15
11	Torino	11	-2	14
12	Atalanta	11	-3	14
13	Genoa	11	-5	13
14	Lecce	11	-10	10
15	Fiorentina	11	-8	9
16	Parma	11	-8	8
17	Sassuolo	11	-13	8
18	Monza	11	-8	7
19	Venezia	11	-13	6
20	Udinese	11	-13	5

More stats

Referee: Andrea Colombo

22 matches · 3.9 yellows and 0.20 reds per match · 0.18 penalties

Half-time

Fiorentina: 6 days since last match · Juventus: 2 days

Fiorentina absences

R. Sottil

Juventus absences

Sin bajas conocidas

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 22:20 UTC.