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FC Thun vs FC Basel 1893 prediction

Switzerland · Super League

FC Thun#8 · 14 ptsWWLLL

3 - 3Full time

FC Basel 1893#7 · 15 ptsLDLLW

35%29%37%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Žan Celar 1'⚽ Philip Otele 12'⚽ Brighton Labeau 16'⚽ Nils·Reichmuth 39'⚽ Žan Celar 55' (p)⚽ Kevin Ruegg 78' (p.p.)

Sunday, November 8 · 10:30 (Peru time) · Stockhorn Arena · Referee: Lukas Fahndrich

🎯 Model pick

FC Basel 1893 to score

84%

Full data

FC Basel 1893 scored in 9 of 12 matches this season
FC Basel 1893 average 1.5 goals per match
FC Thun concede 2.5 goals per match

⚡ Summary

37%FC Basel 1893 to win@2.72 68%Over 2.5 goals@1.47 71%Both teams to score@1.40 55%Corners +9.5 (10.3)@1.8347%Cards +4.5 (4.6)@2.131-1Most likely score · 11%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+6🟨 Jan BamertFC Thun

85'🔁 Sub: Philip Otele · Jonas harderFC Basel 1893

85'🔁 Sub: Kevin Ruegg · Keigo TsunemotoFC Basel 1893

81'🟨 Coleen LouisFC Basel 1893

78'⚽ Kevin Ruegg (own goal)FC Thun

77'🔁 Sub: Furkan Dursun · Noah ChristofferssonFC Thun

77'🔁 Sub: Olivier Mambwa · Lucien DählerFC Thun

68'🔁 Sub: Moussa Cisse · Coleen LouisFC Basel 1893

68'🔁 Sub: Asane Sow · Kazeem OlaigbeFC Basel 1893

64'🔁 Sub: Mattias Käit · Nassim ZoukitFC Thun

64'🔁 Sub: Nils·Reichmuth · Patrik KristalFC Thun

56'🔁 Sub: Adam Ilic · Nico MaierFC Thun

55'⚽ Žan Celar (pen.)FC Basel 1893

53'🔁 Sub: Ludwig Thorell · giacomo kolotoFC Basel 1893

43'🟨 Philip OteleFC Basel 1893

39'⚽ Nils·Reichmuth assist Fabio FehrFC Thun

16'⚽ Brighton LabeauFC Thun

12'⚽ Philip Otele assist Abemly Meto Silu MetinhoFC Basel 1893

1'⚽ Žan Celar assist Ludwig ThorellFC Basel 1893

Win probability minute by minute

FC ThunDrawFC Basel 1893

At kick-off35%29%37%Full time0%100%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

35%FC Thun to win@2.89

29%Draw@3.49

37%FC Basel 1893 to win@2.72

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score71%

FC Thun or draw63%

FC Basel 1893 or draw65%

FC Thun to score83%

FC Basel 1893 to score84%

Most likely scores

1-111%2-28%1-27%2-17%0-05%

Expected goals per the model: FC Thun 1.79 · FC Basel 1893 1.84

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.63.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.3 in total · FC Thun 5.4 · FC Basel 1893 4.9

65%Over 8.5@1.54

55%Over 9.5@1.83

45%Over 10.5@2.23

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.6

64%Over 3.5@1.57

47%Over 4.5@2.13

32%Over 5.5@3.10

⏱️ First half

48% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.73

82%Goal in the 1st half@1.22

52%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@1.94

85%Goal in the 2st half@1.18

⚽ Goals per team

53%FC Thun +1.5@1.87

55%FC Basel 1893 +1.5@1.82

12%FC Thun to win to nil@8.61

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

1.07Expected goals (xG)1.76

3Shots on target7

4Saves1

2Offsides2

15Shots17

1Yellow cards2

4Corners5

17Fouls12

0Red cards0

48Possession %52

Goals in the last 10 matches

FC Thun · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals7/10both teams to score4.2goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

FC Basel 1893 · last 10 matches

9/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score3.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

FC ThunFC Basel 1893

1.8Goals scored per match1.5

2.5Goals conceded per match1.8

81%Matches with over 1.5 goals75%

76%Matches with over 2.5 goals75%

67%Both teams to score67%

10%Clean sheet17%

29%Matches without scoring25%

4.9Corners won per match4.3

2.1Yellow cards per match2.2

FC Thun: 21 matches · FC Basel 1893: 12 matches (all competitions with data).

FC Thun at home · FC Basel 1893 away

FC Thun at home

2G3E5P

WLLLL

FC Basel 1893 away

3G1E2P

LLWDW

When do they score and concede?

FC Thun · goals by minute in 21 matches scored conceded

FC Basel 1893 · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded

The first goal

FC Thun

Scores first in 10 of 20 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 10 and avoids defeat in 2.

FC Basel 1893

Scores first in 4 of 11 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 3.

Players in form

FC Thun

B. Labeau · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Riccardo Braschi · 2 goles, 0 assists in 4 matches

F. Dursun · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

FC Basel 1893

Žan Celar · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

X. Shaqiri · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

K. Olaigbe · 0 goles, 3 assists in 4 matches

Head to head

4FC Thun to win

1Draws

5FC Basel 1893 to win

10 matches · 3.3 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-08-09	FC Basel 1893 4-2 FC Thun	Super League
2026-05-02	FC Basel 1893 3-1 FC Thun	Super League
2026-04-18	FC Thun 3-1 FC Basel 1893	Super League
2026-02-01	FC Basel 1893 1-2 FC Thun	Super League
2025-09-13	FC Thun 1-3 FC Basel 1893	Super League
2025-01-11	FC Basel 1893 2-0 FC Thun	Friendlies Clubs

Standings

Super League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	FC Lugano	13	+21	34
2	BSC Young Boys	13	+16	28
3	FC Sion	13	+11	26
4	FC ST. Gallen	13	+2	22
5	FC Zurich	13	-1	21
6	Servette FC	13	+1	17
7	FC Basel 1893	13	-4	15
8	FC Thun	13	-10	14
9	FC Luzern	13	-7	13
10	Grasshoppers	13	-13	11
11	FC Vaduz	13	-5	10
12	Lausanne	13	-11	7

More stats

Half-time

FC Thun: 2 days since last match · FC Basel 1893: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 18:00 UTC.