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FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano prediction

Switzerland · Super League

FC ST. Gallen#4 · 22 ptsWLWWL

5 - 0Full time

FC Lugano#1 · 34 ptsWWWWW

29%29%42%

Pre-match probabilities

🟥 Albian Ajeti 11'⚽ Chima Okoroji 33'⚽ Andrin Hunziker 34'⚽ Tom Gaal 45'⚽ Andrin Hunziker 66'⚽ Leon Frokaj 84'

Sunday, November 8 · 08:00 (Peru time) · Cornaredo

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

82%

Full data

2+ goals in 16 of 18 FC ST. Gallen matches
Also in 19 of 21 FC Lugano matches
Head to head: 2.8 goals per match

⚡ Summary

42%FC Lugano to win@2.37 60%Over 2.5 goals@1.67 65%Both teams to score@1.53 55%Corners +9.5 (10.3)@1.8340%Cards +4.5 (4.2)@2.481-1Most likely score · 13%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

84'⚽ Leon Frokaj assist Joel RuizFC ST. Gallen

80'🔁 Sub: Lukas Daschner · Leon FrokajFC ST. Gallen

80'🔁 Sub: Uran Bislimi · Renato SteffenFC Lugano

76'🔁 Sub: Lukas Görtler · Betim FazlijiFC ST. Gallen

72'🟨 Behruzjon KarimovFC Lugano

68'🔁 Sub: Andrin Hunziker · Aliou BaldeFC ST. Gallen

67'🔁 Sub: Hugo Vandermersch · Joel RuizFC ST. Gallen

66'⚽ Andrin Hunziker assist Chima OkorojiFC ST. Gallen

65'🔁 Sub: Mattia Zanotti · Behruzjon KarimovFC Lugano

65'🔁 Sub: Martim Marques · Ezdjan AlijoskiFC Lugano

45'+2⚽ Tom Gaal assist Lukas GörtlerFC ST. Gallen

45'🔁 Sub: Daniel Dos Santos Correia · Kevin BehrensFC Lugano

45'🔁 Sub: Tom Gaal · Colin Noah Kleine-BekelFC ST. Gallen

40'🟨 Tom GaalFC ST. Gallen

34'⚽ Andrin Hunziker assist Lukas DaschnerFC ST. Gallen

33'⚽ Chima Okoroji assist Lukas DaschnerFC ST. Gallen

29'🟨 Daniel Dos Santos CorreiaFC Lugano

26'🔁 Sub: David von Ballmoos · Felix GebhardFC Lugano

11'🟨 David von BallmoosFC Lugano

11'🟥 Albian AjetiFC Lugano

Win probability minute by minute

FC ST. GallenDrawFC Lugano

At kick-off29%29%42%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

29%FC ST. Gallen to win@3.46

29%Draw@3.45

42%FC Lugano to win@2.37

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score65%

FC ST. Gallen or draw58%

FC Lugano or draw71%

FC ST. Gallen to score76%

FC Lugano to score82%

Most likely scores

1-113%1-28%2-27%2-17%0-16%

Expected goals per the model: FC ST. Gallen 1.44 · FC Lugano 1.75

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.19.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.3 in total · FC ST. Gallen 5.2 · FC Lugano 5.1

65%Over 8.5@1.54

55%Over 9.5@1.83

45%Over 10.5@2.23

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.2

57%Over 3.5@1.75

40%Over 4.5@2.48

26%Over 5.5@3.79

⏱️ First half

44% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.41

76%Goal in the 1st half@1.32

41%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.43

83%Goal in the 2st half@1.20

⚽ Goals per team

42%FC ST. Gallen +1.5@2.37

52%FC Lugano +1.5@1.92

12%FC ST. Gallen to win to nil@8.59

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

7Shots on target4

4Saves2

3Offsides0

19Shots14

1Yellow cards3

7Corners3

0Red cards1

19Fouls18

60Possession %40

2.32Expected goals (xG)0.79

Goals in the last 10 matches

FC ST. Gallen · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score3.4goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

FC Lugano · last 10 matches

10/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score4.5goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

FC ST. GallenFC Lugano

1.7Goals scored per match2.9

1.9Goals conceded per match0.9

89%Matches with over 1.5 goals90%

72%Matches with over 2.5 goals81%

61%Both teams to score67%

11%Clean sheet33%

28%Matches without scoring0%

6.0Corners won per match5.4

1.9Yellow cards per match2.0

FC ST. Gallen: 18 matches · FC Lugano: 21 matches (all competitions with data).

FC ST. Gallen at home · FC Lugano away

FC ST. Gallen at home

5G1E3P

WWLLL

FC Lugano away

7G2E0P

WWWWW

When do they score and concede?

FC ST. Gallen · goals by minute in 18 matches scored conceded

FC Lugano · goals by minute in 21 matches scored conceded

The first goal

FC ST. Gallen

Scores first in 9 of 18 matches and wins 8 of them.

Concedes first in 9 and avoids defeat in 1.

FC Lugano

Scores first in 16 of 21 matches and wins 15 of them.

Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 5.

Players in form

FC ST. Gallen

Carlo Boukhalfa · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Lukas Görtler · 2 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches

C. Witzig · 1 gol, 0 assists in 3 matches

FC Lugano

D. Dos Santos · 2 goles, 3 assists in 5 matches

Albian Ajeti · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Y. Cimignani · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

5FC ST. Gallen to win

3Draws

2FC Lugano to win

10 matches · 2.8 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-09-16	FC Lugano 4-1 FC ST. Gallen	Super League
2026-05-10	FC Lugano 1-2 FC ST. Gallen	Super League
2026-03-17	FC ST. Gallen 1-1 FC Lugano	Super League
2025-11-26	FC Lugano 1-3 FC ST. Gallen	Super League
2025-09-13	FC ST. Gallen 1-0 FC Lugano	Super League
2025-04-13	FC Lugano 1-1 FC ST. Gallen	Super League

Standings

Super League standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	FC Lugano	13	+21	34
2	BSC Young Boys	13	+16	28
3	FC Sion	13	+11	26
4	FC ST. Gallen	13	+2	22
5	FC Zurich	13	-1	21
6	Servette FC	13	+1	17
7	FC Basel 1893	13	-4	15
8	FC Thun	13	-10	14
9	FC Luzern	13	-7	13
10	Grasshoppers	13	-13	11
11	FC Vaduz	13	-5	10
12	Lausanne	13	-11	7

More stats

Half-time

FC ST. Gallen: 7 days since last match · FC Lugano: 2 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 15:30 UTC.