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FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys prediction

Switzerland · Super League
FC Luzern badgeFC Luzern#9 · 13 ptsDLLWL
2 - 3Full time
BSC Young Boys badgeBSC Young Boys#2 · 28 ptsLWWWD

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Christian Fassnacht 22'⚽ Matteo Di Giusto 38' (p)⚽ Bahereba Guirassy 64'⚽ Levin Winkler 82'⚽ Samuel Essende 90'

Saturday, November 7 · 12:00 (Peru time) · Stade de Suisse Wankdorf Bern

Picky
🎯 Model pick

FC Luzern to score

81%
Full data

⚡ Summary

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+6🔁 Sub: Christian Fassnacht · Gregory WüthrichBSC Young Boys
90'+2⚽ Samuel Essende assist Alan VirginiusBSC Young Boys
90'+1🔁 Sub: Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb · Bung Hua FreimannFC Luzern
90'+1🔁 Sub: Alvyn Sanches · Mamadou Kaly·SeneBSC Young Boys
90'+1🔁 Sub: Armin Gigovic · Dominik PechBSC Young Boys
90'🟨 Aurelio OehlersFC Luzern
89'🟨 Loïc LüthiFC Luzern
85'🟨 Pius DornFC Luzern
82'⚽ Levin Winkler assist Oscar Kabwit TshikombFC Luzern
79'🔁 Sub: Daniel Mikołajewski · Lars VilligerFC Luzern
79'🔁 Sub: Andrejs Cigaņiks · Aurelio OehlersFC Luzern
79'🟨 Moritz JenzBSC Young Boys
77'🔁 Sub: Isaac Schmidt · stefan bukinacBSC Young Boys
77'🔁 Sub: Bahereba Guirassy · Alan VirginiusBSC Young Boys
64'⚽ Bahereba Guirassy assist Isaac SchmidtBSC Young Boys
56'🟨 Isaac SchmidtBSC Young Boys
38'⚽ Matteo Di Giusto (pen.)FC Luzern
36'📺 Daniel MikołajewskiFC Luzern
22'⚽ Christian FassnachtBSC Young Boys
7'🔁 Sub: Mio Zimmermann · Tyron OwusuFC Luzern

Win probability minute by minute

FC LuzernDrawBSC Young Boys
At kick-off25%27%48%Full time0%100%0%
0%25%50%75%100% ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽0'45'90'

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

25%FC Luzern to win@3.93
27%Draw@3.71
48%BSC Young Boys to win@2.10
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Over 3.5 goals55%
Both teams to score75%
FC Luzern or draw52%
BSC Young Boys or draw75%
FC Luzern to score81%
BSC Young Boys to score89%

Most likely scores

1-110%2-28%1-28%1-36%2-15%

Expected goals per the model: FC Luzern 1.68 · BSC Young Boys 2.25

How many goals will there be?

2%0 goals8%1 goals15%2 goals20%3 goals20%4 goals36%5+ goals

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.93.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 10.5 in total · FC Luzern 4.6 · BSC Young Boys 5.9

66%Over 8.5@1.51
56%Over 9.5@1.78
46%Over 10.5@2.15
45678910111213141516+

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.8

67%Over 3.5@1.49
51%Over 4.5@1.97
36%Over 5.5@2.79

⏱️ First half

42% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.64

81%Goal in the 1st half@1.24
49%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.05
90%Goal in the 2st half@1.11

⚽ Goals per team

50%FC Luzern +1.5@2.00
66%BSC Young Boys +1.5@1.52
7%FC Luzern to win to nil@13.74

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2.17Expected goals (xG)1.87
7Shots on target8
5Saves5
5Offsides2
19Shots16
3Yellow cards2
5Corners4
12Fouls16
0Red cards0
48Possession %52

Goals in the last 10 matches

FC Luzern · last 10 matches
7/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score3.8goals per match
2.5vs Lausanne: 1-0 1-0 en Servette FC: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs FC Vaduz: 2-1 2-1 ambosat BSC Young Boys: 3-3 3-3 ambosvs FC Basel 1893: 2-4 2-4 ambosvs Grasshoppers: 5-1 5-1 ambosen FC Lugano: 0-4 0-4 en FC Zurich: 1-2 1-2 ambosvs FC Sion: 1-1 1-1 ambosvs BSC Young Boys: 2-3 2-3 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

BSC Young Boys · last 10 matches
8/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score5.0goals per match
2.5vs FC Vaduz: 4-2 4-2 ambosvs FC Basel 1893: 3-3 3-3 ambosen FC Zurich: 4-2 4-2 ambosvs FC Luzern: 3-3 3-3 ambosen FC Lugano: 2-2 2-2 ambosvs Servette FC: 3-2 3-2 ambosen Grasshoppers: 2-0 2-0 vs FC ST. Gallen: 2-0 2-0 vs FC Zurich: 3-5 3-5 ambosat FC Luzern: 3-2 3-2 ambos

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

FC LuzernBSC Young Boys
1.6Goals scored per match3.2
2.1Goals conceded per match1.9
92%Matches with over 1.5 goals100%
75%Matches with over 2.5 goals83%
75%Both teams to score75%
8%Clean sheet25%
17%Matches without scoring0%
5.5Corners won per match6.2
2.4Yellow cards per match2.1

FC Luzern: 12 matches · BSC Young Boys: 12 matches (all competitions with data).

FC Luzern at home · BSC Young Boys away

FC Luzern at home
3G1E2P
DWLWW
BSC Young Boys away
3G2E0P
WDWDW

When do they score and concede?

FC Luzern · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded
560-150116-301231-455546-604361-754876-90
BSC Young Boys · goals by minute in 12 matches scored conceded
540-156316-308431-458446-607261-754676-90

The first goal

FC Luzern

Scores first in 5 of 12 matches and wins 2 of them.

Concedes first in 7 and avoids defeat in 4.

BSC Young Boys

Scores first in 8 of 12 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 3.

Players in form

FC Luzern

Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

D. Mikolajewski · 3 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

T. Owusu · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

BSC Young Boys

Samuel Essende · 7 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

C. Fassnacht · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches

Bahereba Guirassy · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

1FC Luzern to win
2Draws
7BSC Young Boys to win

10 matches · 4.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-09-05BSC Young Boys 3-3 FC LuzernSuper League
2026-03-04FC Luzern 1-2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
2025-12-14BSC Young Boys 2-0 FC LuzernSuper League
2025-09-14FC Luzern 1-2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
2025-05-15BSC Young Boys 2-1 FC LuzernSuper League
2025-04-13FC Luzern 5-0 BSC Young BoysSuper League

Standings

Super League standings
#TeamPGDPts
1FC Lugano13+2134
2BSC Young Boys13+1628
3FC Sion13+1126
4FC ST. Gallen13+222
5FC Zurich13-121
6Servette FC13+117
7FC Basel 189313-415
8FC Thun13-1014
9FC Luzern13-713
10Grasshoppers13-1311
11FC Vaduz13-510
12Lausanne13-117

More stats

Half-time

FC Luzern: 6 days since last match · BSC Young Boys: 6 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 19:30 UTC.

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