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FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction
International · UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Lugano
Kauno ŽalgirisPre-match probabilities
Thursday, November 5 · 15:00 (Peru time) · AIL Arena · Referee: Yigal Frid
Over 1.5 goals
80%- 2+ goals in 18 of 20 FC Lugano matches
- Also in 7 of 10 Kauno Žalgiris matches
- Picky expects 3.1 goals (2.5 - 0.6)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: FC Lugano 2.53 · Kauno Žalgiris 0.60
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.13.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.7 in total · FC Lugano 6.0 · Kauno Žalgiris 3.7
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.5 · el árbitro I. Frid saca 4.8 por partido
⏱️ First half
48% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.51
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
FC Lugano: 20 matches · Kauno Žalgiris: 10 matches (all competitions with data).
FC Lugano at home · Kauno Žalgiris away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 15 of 20 matches and wins 14 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 5.
Scores first in 4 of 9 matches and wins 3 of them.
Concedes first in 5 and avoids defeat in 0.
Players in form
Daniel Dos Santos Correia · 3 goles, 2 assists in 5 matches
Albian Ajeti · 4 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
Dereck Moncada · 3 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Renan Oliveira · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
G. Debeljuh · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
D. Mikelionis · 0 goles, 1 assists in 2 matches
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 | Twente | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | Monaco | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Brighton | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Brann | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | FC Copenhagen | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 | Universitatea Craiova | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 | Mjallby AIF | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 | St. Truiden | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 | Ajax | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 | Trabzonspor | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 | SC Freiburg | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | SC Braga | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 | Gent | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | FC Thun | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Borac Banja Luka | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 | Aarhus | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Pafos | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 | Getafe | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 | Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 | KuPS | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Midtjylland | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | -10 | 0 |
More stats
15 matches · 4.3 yellows and 0.50 reds per match · 0.67 penalties
FC Lugano: 4 days since last match · Kauno Žalgiris: 14 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-06 00:10 UTC.