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FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atlético prediction

Peru · Liga 1

FC Cajamarca#16 · 31 ptsLLLLD

2 - 0Full time

Alianza Atlético#9 · 49 ptsWWLLW

31%31%37%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Hairo Eduardo·Timana Alvarez 43'⚽ José Mauricio Arrasco Calderón 86'

Saturday, November 7 · 15:30 (Peru time) · Estadio Heroes de San Ramon · Referee: Kevin Ortega

🎯 Model pick

Over 1.5 goals

80%

Full data

2+ goals in 26 of 32 FC Cajamarca matches
Also in 30 of 39 Alianza Atlético matches
Picky expects 3.0 goals (1.4 - 1.6)

⚡ Summary

37%Alianza Atlético to win@2.68 55%Over 2.5 goals@1.81 60%Both teams to score@1.67 35%Corners +9.5 (8.4)@2.8852%Cards +4.5 (4.9)@1.931-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

88'🔁 Sub: Jefferson Orejuela · Hairo CamachoFC Cajamarca

86'⚽ José Mauricio Arrasco Calderón assist S. EncisoFC Cajamarca

84'🔁 Sub: José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez · S. EncisoFC Cajamarca

83'🟨 Arthur Alexander Gutiérrez IngaFC Cajamarca

80'🟨 Germán DíazAlianza Atlético

79'🔁 Sub: Ariel Muñoz · Jairo MolinaAlianza Atlético

69'📺 José Reinaldo Lugo QuiñónezFC Cajamarca

65'🔁 Sub: P. Cejas · Jonathan BetancourtFC Cajamarca

65'🔁 Sub: Brandon Palacios · José Mauricio Arrasco CalderónFC Cajamarca

64'🔁 Sub: Juan Delgado · Jimmy PerezAlianza Atlético

45'🔁 Sub: Anthony Gordillo · Jesus MendietaAlianza Atlético

45'🔁 Sub: Cristian Penilla · Guillermo LariosAlianza Atlético

45'🔁 Sub: Hernan Lupu · Jorge del CastilloAlianza Atlético

43'⚽ Hairo Eduardo·Timana Alvarez assist Brandon PalaciosFC Cajamarca

Win probability minute by minute

FC CajamarcaDrawAlianza Atlético

At kick-off31%31%37%Full time100%0%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

31%FC Cajamarca to win@3.18

31%Draw@3.21

37%Alianza Atlético to win@2.68

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

FC Cajamarca or draw63%

Alianza Atlético or draw69%

FC Cajamarca to score76%

Alianza Atlético to score78%

Most likely scores

1-114%1-28%0-08%2-27%2-17%

Expected goals per the model: FC Cajamarca 1.42 · Alianza Atlético 1.55

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.97.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.4 in total · FC Cajamarca 4.1 · Alianza Atlético 4.3

45%Over 8.5@2.23

35%Over 9.5@2.88

26%Over 10.5@3.85

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.9

68%Over 3.5@1.47

52%Over 4.5@1.93

37%Over 5.5@2.72

⏱️ First half

45% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.33

74%Goal in the 1st half@1.36

39%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.60

81%Goal in the 2st half@1.24

⚽ Goals per team

42%FC Cajamarca +1.5@2.41

46%Alianza Atlético +1.5@2.18

14%FC Cajamarca to win to nil@7.19

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

2.47Expected goals (xG)0.56

7Shots on target1

1Saves7

1Offsides1

17Shots12

1Yellow cards1

8Corners7

4Fouls11

0Red cards0

41Possession %59

Goals in the last 10 matches

FC Cajamarca · last 10 matches

7/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score3.6goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Alianza Atlético · last 10 matches

8/10+2.5 goals8/10both teams to score3.9goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

FC CajamarcaAlianza Atlético

1.4Goals scored per match1.4

2.0Goals conceded per match1.4

81%Matches with over 1.5 goals77%

66%Matches with over 2.5 goals51%

69%Both teams to score62%

3%Clean sheet23%

31%Matches without scoring23%

2.9Corners won per match4.1

2.3Yellow cards per match2.3

FC Cajamarca: 32 matches · Alianza Atlético: 39 matches (all competitions with data).

FC Cajamarca at home · Alianza Atlético away

FC Cajamarca at home

3G4E9P

LLLLL

Alianza Atlético away

4G4E11P

LWLWD

When do they score and concede?

FC Cajamarca · goals by minute in 23 matches scored conceded

Alianza Atlético · goals by minute in 28 matches scored conceded

The first goal

FC Cajamarca

Scores first in 10 of 22 matches and wins 4 of them.

Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 3.

Alianza Atlético

Scores first in 13 of 27 matches and wins 8 of them.

Concedes first in 14 and avoids defeat in 4.

Players in form

FC Cajamarca

José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

S. Enciso · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches

Brandon Palacios · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches

Alianza Atlético

Guillermo Larios · 2 goles, 1 assists in 4 matches

Cristian Penilla · 1 gol, 2 assists in 5 matches

J. del Castillo · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Head to head

0FC Cajamarca to win

1Draws

0Alianza Atlético to win

1 matches · 2.0 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-05-24	Alianza Atlético 1-1 FC Cajamarca	Primera División

Standings

Liga 1 standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	+30	69
2	Universitario	33	+20	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	+18	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	+15	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	+15	51
6	Cusco	33	-1	51
7	Cienciano	33	+8	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	-1	50
9	Alianza Atlético	33	+1	49
10	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	33	-12	48
11	Sport Boys	33	+2	46
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	-11	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	-3	37
14	Atlético Grau	33	-9	37
15	ADT	33	-12	32
16	FC Cajamarca	33	-19	31
17	UCV Moquegua	33	-21	30
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	-20	19

More stats

Half-time

FC Cajamarca: 5 days since last match · Alianza Atlético: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-07 23:00 UTC.