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FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College prediction
Peru · Liga 1
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II CollegePre-match probabilities
Saturday, November 7 · 18:00 (Peru time) · Estadio Monumental de la UNSA · Referee: Daniel Ureta
Over 1.5 goals
84%- 2+ goals in 28 of 33 FBC Melgar matches
- Also in 30 of 32 Juan Pablo II College matches
- Picky expects 3.3 goals (2.4 - 0.9)
⚡ Summary
@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Minuto a minuto
Win probability minute by minute
Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.
Probabilities
Calculated before the match.
Most likely scores
Expected goals per the model: FBC Melgar 2.42 · Juan Pablo II College 0.90
How many goals will there be?
Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 3.32.
Corners, cards and first half
🚩 Corners
Expected: 9.1 in total · FBC Melgar 5.0 · Juan Pablo II College 4.0
Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.
🟨 Cards
Expected: 4.2
⏱️ First half
41% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.35
⚽ Goals per team
Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.
Match stats
Goals in the last 10 matches
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.
Season comparison
FBC Melgar: 33 matches · Juan Pablo II College: 32 matches (all competitions with data).
FBC Melgar at home · Juan Pablo II College away
When do they score and concede?
The first goal
Scores first in 16 of 22 matches and wins 9 of them.
Concedes first in 6 and avoids defeat in 3.
Scores first in 10 of 22 matches and wins 7 of them.
Concedes first in 12 and avoids defeat in 3.
Players in form
Bernardo Cuesta · 3 goles, 0 assists in 3 matches
Cristian Bordacahar · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Nicolas Quagliata · 2 goles, 1 assists in 5 matches
Erinson Ramirez · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches
A. Rojas · 1 gol, 0 assists in 4 matches
Jack·Duran · 1 gol, 0 assists in 5 matches
Head to head
3 matches · 2.0 goals per match
| 2026-05-22 | Juan Pablo II College 1-1 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| 2025-08-05 | FBC Melgar 1-1 Juan Pablo II College | Primera División |
| 2025-07-02 | Juan Pablo II College 1-1 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
Standings
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 | Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 33 | +15 | 51 |
| 6 | Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 | Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 | Alianza Atlético | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 46 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 | Atlético Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 | ADT | 33 | -12 | 32 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 31 |
| 17 | UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 19 |
More stats
FBC Melgar: 5 days since last match · Juan Pablo II College: 7 days
Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 01:30 UTC.