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Farense vs Benfica B prediction

Portugal · Segunda Liga

Farense#8 · 15 ptsDLWWW

2 - 3Full time

Benfica B#3 · 20 ptsWDWWL

45%30%25%

Pre-match probabilities

⚽ Derick Poloni 7'⚽ Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira 44'⚽ Joao·Resende 52'⚽ Olivio Tomé 55'⚽ Olivio Tomé 90'

Sunday, November 8 · 09:00 (Peru time) · Estádio de São Luís · Referee: Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

🎯 Model pick

Farense to score

79%

Full data

Farense scored in 10 of 11 matches this season
Farense average 1.7 goals per match
Candeias is on fire: 3 goals in his last 4 matches

⚡ Summary

45%Farense to win@2.24 50%Over 2.5 goals@1.99 54%Both teams to score@1.87 31%Corners +9.5 (8.0)@3.2644%Cards +4.5 (4.4)@2.271-1Most likely score · 14%

@ = fair odds (no margin). If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Minuto a minuto

90'+3⚽ Olivio Tomé assist Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraBenfica B

90'🔁 Sub: Joseph N'Duquidi · Miguel meninoFarense

84'🔁 Sub: Francisco Silva · João CapuchoBenfica B

84'🔁 Sub: José Neto · Rui silvaBenfica B

84'🔁 Sub: Bernardes · Tomás SoaresBenfica B

82'🟨 duarte soaresBenfica B

77'🔁 Sub: Joao·Resende · Victor Hugo da Silva BarbaraFarense

77'🔁 Sub: André Candeias · Edi SemedoFarense

72'🔁 Sub: João Gastão · Bruno Miguel Vicente dos SantosFarense

65'🟨 BernardesBenfica B

65'🔁 Sub: Nuno Miguel Madeira Fernandes Felix · Miguel FigueiredoBenfica B

55'⚽ Olivio ToméBenfica B

54'🔁 Sub: Peter Edokpolor · Olivio ToméBenfica B

52'⚽ Joao·Resende assist Mattheus de Andrade Gama OliveiraFarense

46'🔁 Sub: Sarpreet Singh · Joseph N'DuquidiFarense

44'⚽ Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira assist José NetoBenfica B

37'🟨 Francisco SilvaBenfica B

7'⚽ Derick Poloni assist André CandeiasFarense

Win probability minute by minute

FarenseDrawBenfica B

At kick-off45%30%25%Full time0%100%0%

Calculated with the PickMania model: each team's expected goals are spread over the time remaining and recalculated after every goal.

Probabilities

Calculated before the match.

45%Farense to win@2.24

30%Draw@3.34

25%Benfica B to win@3.92

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Farense or draw75%

Benfica B or draw55%

Farense to score79%

Benfica B to score68%

Most likely scores

1-114%1-09%0-09%2-19%2-08%

Expected goals per the model: Farense 1.58 · Benfica B 1.16

How many goals will there be?

Pink: 2 goals or fewer (under 2.5) · Orange: 3 or more (over 2.5) · Total expected goals: 2.74.

Corners, cards and first half

🚩 Corners

Expected: 8.0 in total · Farense 3.0 · Benfica B 5.0

40%Over 8.5@2.47

31%Over 9.5@3.26

23%Over 10.5@4.44

Grey: 9 or fewer · orange: 10 or more.

🟨 Cards

Expected: 4.4

61%Over 3.5@1.65

44%Over 4.5@2.27

30%Over 5.5@3.38

⏱️ First half

56% of these teams' goals come before half-time · expected in the 1st half: 1.53

78%Goal in the 1st half@1.28

45%Over 1.5 in the 1st half@2.22

70%Goal in the 2st half@1.42

⚽ Goals per team

47%Farense +1.5@2.13

32%Benfica B +1.5@3.10

23%Farense to win to nil@4.35

Estimates based on each team's (and the referee's) season averages, not the goals model. @ = fair odds: the odds matching that probability with no margin. If the bookmaker pays more, there's value.

Match stats

6Corners5

48Possession %52

0Yellow cards3

6Shots on target6

0Red cards0

17Shots16

Goals in the last 10 matches

Farense · last 10 matches

6/10+2.5 goals6/10both teams to score2.8goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Benfica B · last 10 matches

4/10+2.5 goals4/10both teams to score2.2goals per match

Pink bar = over 2.5 goals · dot = result (green W, grey D, red L) · "BTTS" = both teams scored · oldest to newest.

Season comparison

FarenseBenfica B

1.7Goals scored per match1.2

1.0Goals conceded per match0.7

82%Matches with over 1.5 goals56%

64%Matches with over 2.5 goals33%

64%Both teams to score33%

36%Clean sheet44%

9%Matches without scoring33%

6.0Corners won per match5.0

2.5Yellow cards per match1.7

Farense: 11 matches · Benfica B: 9 matches (all competitions with data).

Farense at home · Benfica B away

Farense at home

4G1E1P

LWWWD

Benfica B away

2G1E1P

DWLWL

When do they score and concede?

Farense · goals by minute in 11 matches scored conceded

Benfica B · goals by minute in 9 matches scored conceded

The first goal

Farense

Scores first in 6 of 10 matches and wins 6 of them.

Concedes first in 4 and avoids defeat in 2.

Benfica B

Scores first in 5 of 8 matches and wins 5 of them.

Concedes first in 3 and avoids defeat in 1.

Players in form

Farense

André Candeias · 3 goles, 2 assists in 4 matches

G. Silva · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Joao·Resende · 1 gol, 1 assists in 5 matches

Benfica B

Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira · 1 gol, 2 assists in 4 matches

Olivio Tomé · 2 goles, 0 assists in 5 matches

Anisio · 1 gol, 0 assists in 2 matches

Head to head

3Farense to win

1Draws

5Benfica B to win

9 matches · 3.4 goals per match

Recent meetings
2026-03-22	Benfica B 1-0 Farense	Segunda Liga
2025-11-02	Farense 4-3 Benfica B	Segunda Liga
2023-05-19	Benfica B 0-1 Farense	Segunda Liga
2023-01-15	Farense 5-2 Benfica B	Segunda Liga
2022-02-21	Benfica B 3-0 Farense	Segunda Liga
2021-09-19	Farense 2-2 Benfica B	Segunda Liga

Standings

Segunda Liga standings
#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Penafiel	10	+12	22
2	Sporting CP B	10	+8	22
3	Benfica B	10	+6	20
4	Lusitânia Lourosa	10	+6	19
5	União de Leiria	10	+3	17
6	Academica	10	+3	16
7	Tondela	10	+2	16
8	Farense	10	+3	15
9	Vizela	10	+1	15
10	Portimonense	10	-3	14
11	AVS	10	+1	13
12	Leixoes	10	-4	11
13	Torreense	10	-3	10
14	Amarante	10	-4	9
15	Felgueiras 1932	10	-3	8
16	FC Porto B	10	-10	8
17	Chaves	10	-10	8
18	Feirense	10	-8	5

More stats

Referee: Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

1 matches · 1.0 yellows and 0.00 reds per match · 0.00 penalties

Half-time

Farense: 6 days since last match · Benfica B: 7 days

Probabilities calculated by the PickMania model (Poisson + Dixon–Coles with team data and market odds). Updated: 2026-11-08 16:30 UTC.